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Turner Drake & Partners Ltd.
6182 North Street
Halifax, N.S.
B3K 1P5
Canada

Tel.: (902) 429-1811
Toll Free: (800) 567-3033
Fax.: (902) 429-1891

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Saint John, N.B.
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Tel.: (506) 634-1811

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Charlottetown, P.E.
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St. John's, N.L.
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Tel.: (709) 722-1811

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111 Queen Street East
Toronto, ON.
M5C 1S2
Tel.: (416) 504-1811

E-Mail: tdp@turnerdrake.com
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# Friday, 18 August 2017

Of Heaven and Sea and Earth 

Please be suitably impressed by this photo: it has all three of a church, a lighthouse and a commercial heritage building


Five years ago, the Chronicle Herald reported that some of Nova Scotia’s churches were exploring the option of deregistering their buildings’ heritage status under the provincial Heritage Property Act.  Nova Scotia’s churches are often their town’s signature property, featuring architectural details ranging from elaborate stained glass windows to ceilings built by 19th century shipwrights using the same techniques used on the hulls of wooden ships.  But cultural and demographic shifts have reduced demand for churches in the province.  Dwindling congregations mean reduced budgets unable to cope with the high costs of maintaining and operating historic properties.  Deregistration is required for demolition, the only option some congregations saw in the face of financial realities: maintenance requirements outweighed the ability to keep these architectural gems standing.  Recent years have seen other churches amalgamate congregations, keeping and maintaining a single building while selling the rest off for (hopefully sympathetic) redevelopment.

Wolfville United Church as it was

A more literal beacon facing a similar threat of extinction is the Canadian lighthouse.  Changing technologies have rendered redundant their function, if not their cultural attraction.  In May 2008, Parliament passed the Heritage Lighthouse Protection Act, a bill to designate and preserve lighthouses of historic significance.  It took effect in May 2010, only to be followed in June by an announcement declaring almost all Canadian lighthouses surplus, no longer to be maintained by the Coast Guard.  Since then, community groups have become the champions of select historic lighthouses, while the rest, presumably, will suffer the same fate as many an unfortunate ship along our rocky coasts.  

Peggy’s Cove lighthouse, a likely survivor

The foregoing each illustrate the perils of functional obsolescence: when a building’s functionality no longer meets market demands only its cultural significance can protect it – and then only if a champion steps up, e.g. government, community group, or passionate property owner.  Urban heritage properties are particularly susceptible to rising functional obsolescence due to the high value of the land on which they sit: the financial rewards of redevelopment contrast starkly with the economic pitfalls of retaining and maintaining them. Demolition is tempting. 

This year we celebrate Canada 150.  With our history and heritage, for better or worse, on prominent display, we decided to turn our attention to the uphill battle faced by commercial heritage properties in Halifax.

Size Matters

Hemlines are the harbinger of stock prices.  Construction of the tallest skyscraper marks the dawn of recession.  Floorplates sound the death knell of heritage properties?  

Open concept office-in-waiting

Downtown heritage buildings in Atlantic Canada are at an inherent disadvantage versus modern construction because they are simply too small.  Even 30-year-old buildings are feeling the strain imposed by their new, more spacious contemporaries, whose design is able to accommodate demand for open concept offices.  In Halifax, total demand has yet to catch up with new supply. Rental rates are restricted and tenants can afford to move into the new buildings, leaving the last generation of Class A office space struggling to stay relevant – and occupied.  The trend is toward larger floorplates as companies are opting for large, open concept offices with collaborative workspaces and few individual offices.  Downtown Halifax doesn’t have a supply of unused historic warehouses with high ceilings and large floorplates ripe for conversion well suited to modern tastes. Instead, our heritage properties are mainly small buildings, 3-6 storeys high and with floor plates between 1,000 and 6,000 square feet (typically at the lower end of this range). 

Halifax has a few examples of what can be done to overcome this drawback.  Barrington Espace and the RBC Waterside Centre both maintained the façades of a number of adjacent heritage properties while completely overhauling their innards, joining the buildings within to allow for larger floorplates (Saint John’s CentreBeam Place is another example of where this technique was used successfully).  If done carefully, this can present a best of both worlds compromise.  If not, the result may be the Disneyfication of heritage: it looks about right, but there’s no soul.  Either way, it is not an option for detached heritage properties: they are left to find occupants happy with the original floorplates size.

Barrington Espace, RBC Waterside Centre, CentreBeam Place…thanks, Google Street View!

Finding a Fit

Heritage properties need a certain tenant.  The predominant competitor of the heritage office building is the home office: to attract a tenant away from this “free” space, a historic building must provide cachet and interest, and must find a tenant who wants (or needs) both as marketing tools for their business.  Heritage tenants are drawn from a pool of largely creative firms represented by public relations and marketing firms, IT companies, and (interestingly) employment recruiting agencies.  Often, these firms are start-ups; there is a symbiotic relationship between the two, with the heritage property providing an inspiring ambiance (and maybe cheap rent: see below), and the company providing income and life to the building.  What the heritage property has more trouble providing is a flexible workspace that can grow with the company.  When they become too large for their space, they must seek a larger floorplate in a more modern building.  There is a happy medium: mid-sized companies who could occupy an entire heritage property as a single tenant.  But in Atlantic Canada, most companies are either large or small, a by-product of provincial regulatory demands which force companies to “get large or go under” (Atlantic Canada is made up of four small provinces each with their own regulatory requirements for businesses: half the population and half the land area of any other province, but four times the regulations…but this is a topic for another day).         

The Champions

There are three classes of champions for heritage properties: passionate owners (hopefully with deep pockets), community groups who recognize the social benefit of maintaining our built heritage, and governments which either have a measure of both these characteristics or are open to the influence of those who do. 

Heritage property owners must appreciate the unique features of old buildings.  To quote one (you’ll never guess who), they “speak to you in a way new buildings don’t.  There is a sense of calm, a personality.  They have been there for centuries, and if the economics can work, they will be there long after you’ve turned to dust.”  Ah, the economics.  Heritage properties in Halifax do not attract a rental premium as they do in some larger cities, such as Toronto’s trendy Distillery District.  There may be a purchase premium, albeit not driven solely by heritage, but location as well, due to the prime situation some heritage properties enjoy by virtue of having gotten there first.  Halifax’s downtown is distinguished by its waterfront; heritage properties with a connection to it in particular may enjoy a purchase premium, provided this connection is maintained (pause now to be thankful for the public outcry that halted “Harbour Drive” before it started…and hopeful that the redevelopment of its first phase, the Cogswell Interchange, will be successful in repairing the fabric of the area). 

 

Toronto’s Distillery District, as modelled by a pair of junior TDPers

There is a social benefit to heritage properties, usually external to the site itself.  A 2011 study by Place Economics highlighted six areas of positive economic impact attributed to heritage preservation: jobs, property values, heritage tourism, environmental impact, social impact and downtown revitalization.  Heritage properties differentiate cities from one another, providing a unique draw to residents, visitors and immigrants alike.  The world’s most successful cities have vibrant heritage architecture, often interspersed with modern buildings.  Community groups recognize this and fight to preserve historic built environments, but it is often the building owners who fund these broader social benefits by bearing the increased costs of renovation and upkeep.  It is here that governments can play a vital role via heritage preservation policies, but they must take care that they get them right.       

Incentivise or incense?

Halifax Regional Municipality recently commissioned a study to investigate heritage incentives.  However structured, these are a means by which society as a whole, via taxes, can help pay for the social benefit of heritage properties.  Two of the largest pitfalls of which governments must be wary when enacting policies to protect heritage properties both involve the risk of (inadvertently) penalizing property owners. 

The first is the more obvious one, wherein the owner of a protected building is prevented from redeveloping a site to a more lucrative density, diminishing the ability to make money from the property and potentially its market value.  One avenue available to the city is to compensate the property owner for the diminished value by purchasing the air rights, i.e. the space above the building in which they would otherwise be allowed to build, but are prevented by heritage preservation policy.  This could be accomplished either directly, with the municipality retaining ownership of the air rights, or by opening the market for air rights trading, allowing heritage property owners to sell their air rights to developers of non-heritage sites to increase the allowable height on their sites.  (Yes, this has the potential to open another can of worms, but it’s a good theory if the policy is well thought out). 

The second potential pitfall lies in supporting some, but not all heritage properties; such as with the creation of a heritage preservation zone.  While those properties (and their owners) located within the zone stand to benefit from financial incentives offered by the municipality, any heritage properties outside the zone are placed at greater disadvantage.  Still competing against larger modern buildings, they are now on an uneven field against their direct (heritage) competition.  The supported properties have the money to modernize without deficit to their owners’ bottom line, while unsupported properties are further penalized physically and financially. 

For more on heritage rights and wrongs, don’t miss our Summer 2017 newsletter, coming soon to a mailbox near you.  If you are not already subscribed to this informative and gutsy publication, please get in touch with us at 902-429-1811 or tdp@turnerdrake.com.

Alexandra Baird Allen is the Manager of our Economic Intelligence Unit, a position which makes surprisingly good use of her liberal arts degree in history & cultural studies, as well as her expertise in GIS.  For more information on our Economic Intelligence Products, visit our website or contact Alex at 902-429-1811 ext. 323 or abairdallen@turnerdrake.com.

Friday, 18 August 2017 12:21:25 (Atlantic Daylight Time, UTC-03:00)  #    -
Atlantic Canada | Brokerage | Counselling | Economic Intelligence Unit | New Brunswick | Newfoundland & Labrador | Nova Scotia | Planning | Prince Edward Island | Property Tax | Turner Drake  | Valuation
# Thursday, 01 June 2017

I can honestly say that these 13 weeks have been nothing short of amazing, over this time I have learned so much and gained experience that will help me throughout my life. I expected to come in one day a week for 8 hours a day and job shadow someone. I never thought that I would have my own space to work and be able to do so many things on my own. Every Tuesday morning I would meet with Ashley Urquhart (my boss for the day) and she would tell me the plan. If I had any questions that her door was always open, she was always very upbeat and happy, that made it extremely easy to talk to her.

I got into a morning routine of doing certain jobs, I would do Tenders, Google Analytics, and they even let me post on their social media accounts! I got to tweet about news that I thought was important, that was probably one of the best parts of my Co-Op experience. I never thought that they would give a Co-Op student in high school this much responsibility, I am beyond grateful that they did.  I always had someone close by to help me if I ever needed anything. The person sitting closest to me was Michael McCurdy, he made the day fun and I got to see how to be professional in the workplace and how to talk to clients over the phone. I worked with a great bunch of people that made this experience a lot of fun and helped me learn new things. My aunt, Patti Farewell, has work at Turner Drake & Partners for 26 years and now I see why, it is a very enjoyable place to work and everyone makes you feel welcome. The owner, Mike Turner, would always talk to me and ask me how things are going, along with his wife Verna, who would always make a point of talking to me and saying how nicely I was dressed, they were nice little conversations that made me smile. One day I got to sit in on a support staff meeting, we got lunch and talked about new ideas for TDP, I felt very included and like I was a part of the team.

The Co-Op interview was with Mark Turner (Vice President of the company) it was professional like a “real” interview would be so that I would be prepared for the actual thing when I go to apply for my full time job later in life. He was very nice and made me excited to start, I later got to work on a small project for him.

Right away I was being trained by two people who did exactly what I wanted to do. Ashley Urquhart and Alex Baird Allen were my safety nets throughout this time. The first few things they let me do on my own was, Tenders- finding new jobs and properties for the company to look at. The next job was Google Analytics- finding out how many people looked at the websites and how many people follow TDP’s social media accounts. They also trained me to do a few other jobs that would help me later, Data Mining- updating client’s information, Media Sheets- updating who they send things to. There were also basic jobs such as, photocopying, mail-outs and manuals. After a bit of time went by I was able to post on the company’s twitter. I was given the job of making a new flyer that would later be sent out to clients, I was surprised that they felt like I was doing well enough to be given a project that important. I spent many hours on it and got nothing but positive feedback. It’s going to be weird not seeing these people for a while, I would really like to come back for my grade 12 Co-Op and give it my all once more. Lastly I liked how much responsibility I had. They gave me my own place to work but it was also around people so I never alone. This is definitely a place I would love at work at after I finish school.

Help us prevent youth migration, hire a coop student today!


Thursday, 01 June 2017 16:08:11 (Atlantic Daylight Time, UTC-03:00)  #    -
Atlantic Canada | Brokerage | Counselling | Economic Intelligence Unit | Lasercad | New Brunswick | Newfoundland & Labrador | Nova Scotia | Planning | Prince Edward Island | Property Tax | Turner Drake  | Valuation
# Monday, 08 May 2017


(Image via Global News)

Symptoms of an Election
In the run up to the now transpiring Nova Scotia provincial election, our governing party engaged in the time-honoured tradition of the spending announcement roadshow. A few million for a community centre here, a few million more for an overpass there, culminating finally in the double whammy of a new outpatient facility in suburban Halifax, and toll-free twinning of several sections of highway.

Unlike most spending announcements, the outpatient facility drew immediate criticism. While the highway twinning has started to attract some rightful critique, the patently foolish choice of locating a medical facility in the retail backlands of a dysfunctional industrial park was apparent to many; not the least of which being senior municipal staff who’d advised the Province of these issues months prior. Embarrassingly, the location is a miserable failure when measured against the Province’s own aging population action plan, Shift, which it had announced along with nearly $14 million in funding mere weeks before.

As an aside: of the opportunities for criticism of the outpatient location, and there are many, the purchase price of the land is not a fruitful one. Without the benefit of knowing the particular details of the deal, the $12.00/ft² paid by the Province for the raw land includes the cost to bring the site to a state of development-readiness. Land in this condition elsewhere in Bayers Lake has sold in the neighbourhood of $11.50/ft², so this is hardly the 12,000% markup insinuated by some reporters and rival politicians. (For future reference, comparing purchase price to assessed values for development land – or any real estate for that matter – can be extremely misleading. Media Types: if you’re looking for a real estate angle on a story, give me a call… I know some people.)

A Bad Prognosis if Left Untreated
So here’s the rub. Atlantic Canada, as we’ve described many times, is facing a serious demographic crunch that will constrain income tax revenue to the provinces, and property tax revenue to municipalities (in Nova Scotia, see Canso, Springhill, Hantsport, and Parrsboro for a preview). Given the scale of these trends, immigration is not likely to alleviate this difficulty. This means public investment utilises increasingly precious dollars; long gone is the time where we could rely on growth to overcome poor decisions.

Yet, public capital spending is and will remain one of the most significant factors in the trajectory of our communities. The provision and location of these facilities influences development trends for decades. A new medical facility is not just a site for convenient patient care. It is also a major employer, and consumer of both public and private services. It generates broader impacts; spinoffs that if harnessed properly can enhance the benefits of other facilities, strengthen neighbourhoods and local business, and mitigate future infrastructure costs. A newly twinned highway is not just a safety improvement for the travelling public, it is a half-billion dollars no longer available to be spent on other priorities. We’ve got to get serious, we’ve got to be scrappy, and we have to be careful to maximise the benefits our public spending generates. Opportunities of an equivalent scale from private-sector activity are few and far between.

By narrowly constraining their site selection study (I presume, as this information is also not publicly available), the government has perhaps saved money on the land for the outpatient facility, only to create far greater costs in the form of municipal servicing expenses, diminished economic spinoff, and foregone social benefits. This short-sightedness is not resigned only to our provincial overlords, municipalities large and small consistently miss opportunities to strengthen and improve neighbourhoods or commercial main streets. At best, we have a habit of placing community facilities in a location that only performs well on measures of land price and vehicular accessibility. At worst, it is directed by decades of parochial bickering and ends up in a location agreed to be equally terrible for everyone.


Nice wellness centre you have there, shame about the sidewalk.
(Image via Pictometry ©2015)

Prescription As the highway twinning issue has shown, no “overwhelming public consensus” is going to emerge on any policy or funding choice other than those promising a free lunch. It is going to take political guts to lead the way: the decisions we need to make are pound-wise at the risk of appearing penny-foolish. Better analysis can help identify the optimal site selection and communicate the wisdom of that choice. A paltry million saved in cheap land will pale in comparison to full lifecycle costs of poorly located public infrastructure. The property taxes generated by that good natured economic development project might never recoup its initial cost. And increasingly, methods are available to help quantify and communicate the broad community and economy strengthening effects that government undertakings can create. A complete approach to site selection and capital project analysis in a time where each dollar counts is the difference between spending decisions that achieve lasting public value instead of fleeting public relations.


Remember, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and we have the skills required to evaluate your options in the context they deserve. Neil Lovitt, our Senior Manager of Planning & Economic Intelligence can be reached at 428-1811 ext. 349 (HRM), 1 (800) 567-3033 (toll free), or nlovitt@turnerdrake.com.

Monday, 08 May 2017 10:29:39 (Atlantic Daylight Time, UTC-03:00)  #    -
Atlantic Canada | Brokerage | Counselling | Economic Intelligence Unit | New Brunswick | Newfoundland & Labrador | Nova Scotia | Planning | Prince Edward Island | Property Tax | Turner Drake  | Valuation
# Wednesday, 26 April 2017

Property tax is by far the most important source of revenue for municipalities in Canada, accounting for 49.5% of revenue in 2008 with an annual average growth rate of 1.6% (1988-2008). As reliance on property tax increases, so does the complexity of administering this regressive but necessary evil. Increased computing power in the mid-1960s prompted a shift towards automation of property tax systems, beginning with simple tasks and culminating in today’s fully automated assessment, notification, and payment systems. Modern Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) allow for rapid processing of data with minimised human-bias… but (and this is a large but) real estate appraisal is a nuanced trade: reducing the role of Appraiser to AVM Technician can have significant negative repercussions.

Service New Brunswick’s ongoing cleanup of their attempt at an AVM is a prospective case study in the dangers of a “hands-off” approach to the valuation process. Massive value errors were created by a computer-driven system with insufficient checks in place to alert users to suspicious results. When reviewed by human appraisers many of the shockingly incorrect valuations were easily overturned based on traditional market comparison valuation. Autopilot replaced the flight crew and actual appraisers are left cleaning up the crash, while their political and bureaucratic colleagues deal with the rightful public outcry.

While seemingly seductive, potential time and cost savings offered by an AVM should never mask the fact that, in order to operate successfully, an AVM must integrate human expertise throughout the valuation process. At Turner Drake the “A” in our in-house AVM stands for Accelerated to reflect the role that expert opinion plays in our two-stage computer-assisted mass appraisal model. Stage One combs through real property sales to select comparable properties based on locally relevant, value-defining attributes such as size, location, and design. Stage Two adjusts and weighs a unique set of comparable sales to create a market-based value estimate for each subject property in an assessment area. Throughout each stage of the model, a professional appraiser defines the selection criteria and adjustment values for comparable properties based on market evidence and local expertise. The model does the heavy lifting but certified appraisers evaluate and refine the results.



Outliers - which no system can avoid - can wreak havoc on the results of an AVM unequipped to handle the inherently diverse nature of real estate. It is critically important to flag potential outliers for review so the model can be adjusted for future assessments. During the initial rollout of an AVM model, refinement is time consuming but absolutely necessary for creating reliable, equitable assessments in successive years. In developing our Accelerated Valuation Model, we put the time in up front so the system flags out of the ordinary results, and the professional appraiser, made aware of the potential issue, is able to quickly and easily account for them.

In a Case Study of condominiums on the Halifax Peninsula, the Turner Drake AVM out-performed PVSC assessment values by a margin of up to 45%. That is, 86% of TDP value estimates were within 5% of an actual time-adjusted sale price versus PVSC’s 41% and 98% of TDP values were within 15% of actual sale price versus PVSC’s 84% in the same pool of properties. Our combination of custom programs and a traditional direct-comparison valuation can produce a list of unique comparables with adjustments for 1,000 properties in about two seconds.

Property tax administration systems are as diverse as the municipalities they serve and every region relies to a degree on the convenience of computers and automation. However, no matter the size or complexity of a property tax system it is important to follow best practices, and learn from the success - or failure - of others. When the pursuit of speed comes at the expense of quality there is a significant risk to the accuracy of valuations and the credibility of the property tax system as a whole.

For more information on how our AVM can benefit you, call James Stephens at 902-429-1811 ext. 346 or email jstephens@turnerdrake.com

Wednesday, 26 April 2017 10:21:10 (Atlantic Daylight Time, UTC-03:00)  #    -
Atlantic Canada | Brokerage | Counselling | Economic Intelligence Unit | New Brunswick | Newfoundland & Labrador | Nova Scotia | Planning | Prince Edward Island | Property Tax | Turner Drake  | Valuation
# Monday, 03 April 2017



Our Economic Intelligence Unit is always on the hunt for new data sources to bolster our maps and feed our spreadsheets: any good analysis begins with high quality data. The majority of our databases are populated with a wealth of information via a process of blood, sweat, and tears (though increasingly data is graciously released by provincial gatekeepers) and it could be that our next trove of valuable data is being cultivated on farms across the Maritimes. The movement of food from field to plate involves numerous stops along the agricultural supply chain and, when property tracked, that data can prove valuable for a host of analytical tasks.

The ability to track an item from Point A to B in a large-scale supply chain is known as traceability. The theory behind it is relevant in all aspects of our lives: be it an Amazon package or a donair pizza, consumers - and businesses - have discovered that real-time knowledge of where a product is, physically, at any point in time is a competitive advantage in terms of marketing and efficiency. Agriculture is no exception. Traceability is already in use as a health risk management tool: it allows for rapid response to health emergencies by identifying exactly where and when afflicted produce or livestock stopped along the supply chain. Efficiently pin-pointing sources of contamination (think E.coli outbreaks) and creating cost-effective responses, such as targeted treatments and recalls, are critical in a modern, globally connected agricultural sector.

In addition to the obvious benefits of using traceability from an epidemiology perspective, there is also major potential for economic spinoff benefits from tracking the movement of agricultural goods. At a recent gathering of Nova Scotian Agrologists, speaker Chris deWaal of Getaway Farm (of Seaport Market fame) touted the very real benefits of offering consumers the entire life history of their food as a competitive advantage over mass-produced “mystery meat.” The introduction of the “Trace My Catch” program for canned seafood provides an example of how seafood processors are embracing traceability as a marketing tool, and provides an indication of the feasibility of doing so. In a province with a growing love affair for all things local it is no surprise that demand for local meat and produce is on the rise.

Benefits beyond health and marketing can be opened with traced agricultural data. Used in conjunction with GIS, the location and density of animals, farms, stockyards, abattoirs, and processing facilities become inputs for site selection and trade area analysis and indicators of economic health in rural economies - an issue of pressing concern for many Nova Scotian communities.

Imagine opening a meat processing and distribution facility to feed growing demand for local, organic products while still maintaining capacity for foreign exports. A standard GIS-based site selection analysis would use static location data (suppliers, purchasers) with network data (highway, rail, sea) to build a short-list of potential development sites which minimize transportation costs for both inputs and outputs. Additional variables such as workforce availability, machinery and equipment suppliers, veterinary services, and property taxes can all be integrated with locational data to suit the needs of the processor. But a standard analysis does not take into account how many animals are produced by individual farms or the variability in production from year to year.

Traceability data can enhance GIS analysis by optimizing site selection so it is based on not just the density of farms within a trade area, but the capacity to bring high volumes of livestock (or produce) efficiently to market. Historic tracking data of individual animals could forecast future production including where livestock are ultimately processed and sold. A savvy processor would use this data to identify opportunities for expansion and generate reliable, defendable business projections.

The agricultural sector already collects traceability data for use in health risk management; leveraging that same wealth of data for marketing and day-to-day business operations is the logical next step. The agricultural sector is a ray of light in the gloom of rural Nova Scotia: according to Statistics Canada’s census, between 2006 and 2011, Nova Scotia was the only province in Canada to see an increase in the number of farms, total farm area, and number of farm operators. Should the 2016 census indicate continued growth, it will clearly indicate that it’s time for all players in the agricultural game to leverage their existing data infrastructure to gain a competitive advantage at home and abroad.

For more information on how spatial analysis can benefit your business, call James Stephens at 902-429-1811 ext. 346 or visit: Economic Intelligence Unit

Monday, 03 April 2017 10:02:51 (Atlantic Daylight Time, UTC-03:00)  #    -
Atlantic Canada | Counselling | Economic Intelligence Unit | New Brunswick | Newfoundland & Labrador | Nova Scotia | Planning | Prince Edward Island | Turner Drake  | Valuation
# Thursday, 16 February 2017



Finding Answers in the Bottle

Recently our Brokerage Division closed a deal that will see a mid-century commercial building transition from a hair salon to Halifax’s first cidery – a business dedicated to the production and enjoyment of hard ciders. It is the city’s newest addition to the burgeoning craft beverage industry, and by my count, the fifth such business within short walking distance of our head office. Thanks to double digit year-over-year growth in the industry, such businesses have been setting up shop throughout our region, but I have good reason to believe we at Turner Drake are working in the very nexus of Beer Oriented Development.

The craft beverage industry is booming throughout the continent evidently. However, BOD is a specific variant distinguished by integrating the production element the brewery, with the social gathering element of a retail/food service business, wrapping it all in a locally authentic brand identity and plunking it in walking distance to residential neighbourhoods. The term itself was apparently coined in the weary rust-belt city of Buffalo where a pattern of revitalisation lead by the craft brewing industry has been observed in neighbourhoods otherwise dogged by the Midwest’s manufacturing decline and hard hit by the Great Financial Crisis.

Back in our corner of North America, we can certainly attest to the healthy “third place” function of Beer Oriented Development. That is to say, in addition to the production itself, many businesses serve as a nexus for community development outside of the home and workplace. They are small enough operations to revitalise defunct or underused properties without the timeline and complexity of projects requiring land assembly. The size and design of the retail operation typically creates an enjoyable atmosphere and promotes interaction between customers (who are often neighbours). Where the sale and service activities are able to spill outside onto a patio or sidewalk café, they further add to the vitality and liveliness of the entire street. With seemingly endless groups of engineering school buddies (it’s always those engineers) keen to start their own sudsy venture, why do some areas see a flourish of BOD while others simply get an increase in breweries?

The Broken Window Fallacy

There’s a classic economic parable that goes something like this: A baker’s shop window is broken and he hires a glazer to repair it. Passersby observe the glazer at work and remark on the economic activity stimulated by the broken window. Meanwhile, the baker having spent his money on the window now postpones his plan to purchase a larger oven to increase his production. In this way, the passersby are mistaken about the benefit of a broken window because they consider only what they see, and not what they can’t see. That is, they do not consider the opportunity cost; the lost benefits that would have been generated by things that were prevented, often without conscious purpose, from ever happening in the first place.

We don’t often think about opportunity cost in planning. We like to have the initiative; there are no problems that can’t be fixed through the application of more regulation or better policy. In this mindset, it is sometimes easy to lose sight of the fact that many (perhaps even most) good things tend to happen on their own if we leave the space for it. Nevertheless, Halifax, like many Atlantic Canadian cities, does benefit from not having gone too far off the deep end when it comes to land use regulation… at least compared to standard practices west of our region. Consider the present (if outgoing) land use bylaw for the Halifax Peninsula area where residential land use is governed by 6 zones. Contrast that with London Ontario, a city of comparable population and municipal budget, where no less than 17 zones are needed just to regulate single detached housing! Clearly one approach provides more “regulatory space” than the other.

Six of One Ain’t Always a Half Dozen

London, like Halifax, is a university town with no shortage of thirsty students or courageous engineering buddies. Like Halifax, it has its own litany of recently launched microbreweries. And finally, like Halifax, London did not, and does, not specifically target or promote Beer Oriented Development. What London does have is its hyper specific approach to coding land use which classifies microbreweries as “Food, Tobacco, and Beverage Processing Industries” and among the 20+ flavours of commercial zoning, relegates such uses to the “General Industrial” areas of the city. In Halifax, some microbrewers also set up shop in the industrial areas, depending on their business model. However, Beer Oriented Development is mostly occurring under the General Business zone which allows – to paraphrase – basically any business that doesn’t create problems in the area.

The shocking result? All of London’s new microbreweries are segregated into soulless industrial parks. Sure, they’ve got a quality product, backed by the same witty, self-aware marketing, and most even have attached tasting rooms and offer brewery tours, but to access any of it you’ve got to drive out past electrical suppliers and find their docking bay among the other distributers and warehousers. So while both city economies are benefiting from growth in the craft beverage industry, only Halifax is gaining the additional benefits to neighbourhood revitalisation and contributions to a lively pedestrian atmosphere. These are not just intangible perks for urban hipsters. There is a hard dollar cost to London in terms of lost economics spinoffs and unrealised gains in property value, but that cost is the new oven, hidden behind a broken window.

The Future is Delicious

Beer Oriented Development is just a microcosm of a larger dynamic. No one was anticipating an explosion of craft brewing or the potential of BOD when the zoning codes were written twenty years ago, just as the codes we write today do not address a futuristic possibilities like the rise of distributed manufacturing, or an explosion of artificial intelligence. In truth, it’d be foolish if they did. In dealing with an ultimately unknowable future, it is basic human nature to play it safe; control what is knowable, and regulate the unexpected out of existence. The costs of this approach are easy to ignore because we are never fully aware of paying them. Yet, as Beer Oriented Development clearly demonstrates, there is a benefit, indeed a competitive advantage, to the city that sets itself up to embrace the unknowable future and capitalise on the unexpected.

Our Role

What can you build on your property? The answer to this is determined by interpreting the local planning policy and regulation. However these are living documents, and project timelines are often measured in years. Thus, it is essential to not only look at the present-day context, but peer into the future for additional opportunities. This is precisely why all our Planning Policy and Regulatory Review reports contain a Long-term Outlook section.

For a recent client, this feature paid dividends. For their property, the desired outcome would have required multiple amendments and the negotiation of a Development Agreement under present requirements; an expensive and risky process overall. However, by casting a wider gaze in our investigation, we identified an opportunity to pursue the same goals through a larger policy update the municipality was preparing to make. While this didn’t save our client any time, it lowered the risk, and greatly reduced the cost.

We’re finding our Planning Division lends vital assistance to our other areas of operation, improving the detail and delivery time of Valuation, Counselling, Economic Intelligence, Property Tax and Brokerage assignments. More importantly, it creates value for our clients, aiding with development projects big and small.



Whether you’re musing about options or working towards a clear goal, ask Neil Lovitt, our Planning Division Manager, how we can help: 1 (902) 429-1811 (HRM), 1 (800) 567-3033 (toll free), or nlovitt@turnerdrake.com

Thursday, 16 February 2017 12:26:42 (Atlantic Standard Time, UTC-04:00)  #    -
Atlantic Canada | Brokerage | Counselling | Economic Intelligence Unit | New Brunswick | Newfoundland & Labrador | Nova Scotia | Planning | Prince Edward Island | Turner Drake
# Friday, 13 May 2016

Every year at this time, the Island welcomes the prospect of summer with an explosion of colour: yellow daffodils, orange tulips, green grass, blue skies and dancing waters. Less welcome is the annual burden heralded by flowering of the 2016 Assessment Notices. If you are a property owner, you should have received it by now. It was officially mailed on May 6th and you have 90 days in which to file an appeal or wear the consequences for the rest of the year. If your property is enrolled in our PAMSTM Property Tax Manager program, you can relax; we are already reviewing your assessment and will file an appeal if the opportunity exists to reduce your tax load. If your property is not yet PAMSTM protected, procrastinate not: you have work to do.

The legislated basis for your Year 2016 assessment is your property’s Market Value on January 1st, 2016. However, the Assessment Act also implicitly includes a “uniformity” provision hidden in the appeal process, so similar properties are required to have similar assessments. You should appeal your assessment if:

(1) Its Assessed Value > Market Value as of January 1st, 2016, or

(2) Its Assessed Value > Assessed Value of Similar Properties.

The first test is to estimate your property’s Market Value on January 1st, i.e. the price it would fetch had it been offered for sale during the last six months of 2015. Purchasers look to the future, but their expectations are usually coloured by recent history. So if, for example, you own a tourist related facility, your 2015 season will impact its value to the degree that it would influence potential purchasers for 2016 and beyond. The Market Value too is based on its anticipated selling price… not the price that would persuade you to dispose of the property.

In 2012, our Economic Intelligence Unit conducted a demographic study of Atlantic Canada for a national client. Their study utilised data from the 2001, 2006 and 2011 Statistics Canada censuses. The rate at which our regional population aged during that period is frightening; the rate at which it will age over the next ten years is terrifying. Last year, a government initiated study was released, which reviewed the changes to the economy resulting from that demographic change. The report studied Nova Scotia but its conclusions apply to all three Maritime Provinces. The report is not a happy read.

If you own a “lifestyle property,” e.g. motel, golf course, vineyard, restaurant, etc., past sales of similar properties may not be a reliable indicator of your property’s current Market Value. This type of property is usually owned by an owner operator, many of whom are now reaching retirement age. Unfortunately, the pool of prospective purchasers is shrinking rapidly as the entire population ages. Fewer purchasers translate into lower values. This is over and above any adverse impact resulting from declining tourist dollars as Americans in particular shun foreign travel.

If you own an office building in Charlottetown, you may be suffering from burdensome vacancy rates. Our most recent survey (December 2015) covered 100% of the rental stock and revealed an overall 15.69% vacancy rate… well above the sustainable economic rate and up from 10.4% from the previous year. Our survey of industrial space recorded an overall vacancy of 14.00%. If you own an office or industrial building, you should carefully consider if an appeal is warranted.

The provincial assessment authority sometimes assesses property at less than its Market Value to forestall appeals. There is an assumption by most property owners that they will not be able to successfully challenge an assessment if it is less than the property’s Market Value… even if the assessment is higher than those of similar properties. This is not the case. Buried in the appeal section of the provincial Real Property Assessment Act is the requirement that “the Minister shall demonstrate the uniformity of the assessment in relation to other assessments” (Section 28 [1]). Thus, albeit somewhat belatedly, does the Assessment Act acknowledge that similar properties should have similar assessments. Comparing commercial properties and their assessments can be a little tricky however, which is why we have built an Assessment Database for the entire province that allows us to conduct peer group comparisons… and quickly determine whether your property is uniformly assessed.

The Bottom Line: Fortune favours the brave.

Action Required: Call our PEI Tax Team members Mark Turner and André Pouliot at 902-368-1811 (Charlottetown) or toll free at 1-800-567-3033. Alternatively, you can email them at markturner@turnerdrake.com or apouliot@turnerdrake.com. Using our proprietary software CompuVal®, our PEI Assessment and Transactional Databases, and basic property information provided by yourself, they can usually determine in a five minute telephone conversation whether you should appeal. There is no charge for this service, nor will big men come to call.

Friday, 13 May 2016 15:41:46 (Atlantic Daylight Time, UTC-03:00)  #    -
Prince Edward Island | Property Tax
# Thursday, 05 May 2016

Immigration into Canada is nothing new: the country admits an average of 253,875 immigrants each year. This number is responsible for almost two-thirds of the national population growth from 2005 to 2015. Based on a housing demand projection study conducted by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), a 1% increase in immigrant population causes housing demand to rise by about 0.66%. However, the Maritime housing market is facing a projected decline in the coming years due to three interdependent facors: an aging and shrinking population, a dearth of immigration and very low rates of economic growth. This is not new information: alarms were given by various sources and it’s time to halt the slide.

History has proven that an aggressive immigration policy can help smooth the impact of an aging population (e.g. Ontario and Vancouver). It is not surprising, therefore, that increasing migration into the Maritimes is an effective way of addressing the adverse effects of our aging population. New immigrants will not only help increase the production of goods and services but will also directly increase the demand for housing.

Becoming a Maritime immigrant myself, I have a special interest in exploring the relationships between immigrant and housing trends in this region. I came to Canada in late 2012 as an international student and have seen several immigrants who decided to stay and purchase a house here. Many of them are below age 40, well-educated, and economically independent. Do they represent the majority immigrant group in the Maritime Region? I decided to dig into the data to find the answer.

The Maritime Immigration Trends

Immigrants comprise less than 6% of the Maritime Provinces’ total population, but 20.6% of the national population. Immigrant inflows to the Maritimes fluctuated dramatically from 1991 to 2006, however in the last decade, trends have been rising. This can be attributed to new policy initiatives (e.g. provincial nominee program, skilled worker express entry) aimed at attracting more immigrants to the Maritime region. From 2006 to 2011, the number of immigrants to PEI rose six-fold. Not surprisingly, employment growth in PEI caught up with the national average during the same period. Although this growth is from a small base, it still means the island is attracting more than twice as many immigrants compared to its share of the total population.




Maritime Immigrants: Countries of Origin and Demographic Profile

The United States and United Kingdom were the top two source countries of the Maritime immigrants during the 1980s. The position was taken over temporarily by some Middle Eastern countries (in the aftermath of the Gulf War) and China in the 1990s. In the last decade, the US and UK again became the top two sources of immigrants, but China and other Asian countries are listed among the top five.



The map above shows the percentage of the total population formed by Maritime immigrants in in 2015, along with the most common countries of origin. Immigration to the Maritimes is heavily slanted in favour of Halifax County (NS), Queens County (PE), Westmorland County (NB) and York County (NB). However, according to the immigration demographic profile report provided by the Atlantic Metropolis Centre, more than one-fifth of immigrants who arrived in the Maritimes from 2006 to 2011 declared their intended destinations to be outside a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), which indicates the potential for allocating new immigrants to rural areas.

The age profile of immigrants in the Maritimes is dominated by the lower age group according to the most recently released Statistics Canada data. About 75% of immigrants who arrived from 2011 to 2015 were under age 45, and 7.5% were under age 25. The corresponding numbers for resident Maritimers aged under 45 and under 25 in 2015 were 44.3% and 14.7% respectively.

The Housing Situation and Needs of Immigrants

There have been many reports and studies exploring the current economic and population trends in the Maritime region: evidence shows Maritimers are now on the brink of an extended period of decline. The unavoidable aging trend is weakening the Maritime housing market and will continue to do so unless effective action is taken. The key to slowing down the aging trend is to be open to the outsiders by targeting and attracting skilled immigrants to the region.

In last month’s TDP trends, we explored the HRM residential house market tipping point. In the Atlantic Region, most first-time buyers are aged 25 to 34, followed by a small portion in the 35 to 59 group. Second-time buyers are also primarily aged 25 to 34. Finding suitable and affordable housing is an essential step in immigrant integration. With relatively lower housing prices (compared to Ontario and Vancouver), the Maritimes have advantages in attracting potential younger aged immigrant home buyers. Such a future can have only one outcome: reversed housing declines in demand for the aging population trend, which will boost the regional economy.



Written by Chen Shi, Consultant in our Economic Intelligence Unit. To learn more about Chen, visit our Facebook page to see her Featured Consultant article.

Thursday, 05 May 2016 09:56:23 (Atlantic Daylight Time, UTC-03:00)  #    -
Economic Intelligence Unit | New Brunswick | Nova Scotia | Prince Edward Island