Expropriation is the forceable taking of property by an acquiring authority for a public project, such as a road, transmission line, pipeline etc. In the vast majority of cases, only a small portion of a property is taken, and sometimes only a partial interest is required.  Pipelines, for example, only require a sub-surface easement interest, allowing the owner to continue using the surface for anything that doesn’t interfere with the operation and maintenance of the pipeline itself.  Transmission lines are happy to share, requiring only an easement interest for the towers and the overhead lines.  Regardless of whether the interest is full (fee simple) or partial (easement), the acquiring authority pays compensation for the value of the interest taken, the boundaries of which are defined by a survey plan and a legal description, properly recorded at the Land Registry.

In some instances, however, an acquiring authority may exert control beyond the boundaries of what it has legally acquired.  In Nova Scotia, new highways are usually designated as controlled access highways under the Public Highways Act, imposing potential new restrictions on building setbacks.  A permit from the Minister is required for the construction of buildings and structures within 60 metres (197 ft.) of the limit of a designated controlled access highway or within 100 metres (328 ft.) of its centre line.  That is probably far more restrictive than the local By-Laws require, potentially sterilizing a fair chunk of land alongside the new highway unless Ministerial approval is granted.  In rural areas it probably doesn’t matter, but in urban areas it might, especially if there is a potential for development.  The Public Highways Act does allow compensation for so-called injurious affection resulting from a controlled access highway designation … but not for new highways.  So, any compensation in respect of new setbacks alongside new highways must presumably be claimed via the Expropriation Act, even though the restrictions are authorised under a different act.

Pipeline easements come with similar strings attached.  Oil and gas pipelines are regulated under the National Energy Board Act (which strictly speaking grants orders for rights of entry rather than expropriations).  The Act imposes an automatic 30 metre (98 ft.) Prescribed Area – or safety zone – on either side of the pipeline, within which so-called ground disturbances and construction activities are restricted. Some activities are totally prohibited and others require the pipeline company’s permission.  So, whilst the pipeline company only acquires the easement within which its pipeline sits, it casts a 30 metre shadow on either side.  Compensation for restrictions within the 30 metre safety zone is often challenged but has been awarded and upheld by the Federal Court in valid circumstances.  Again, in rural areas it might have little impact, but in urban areas it most likely will, especially if it interferes with development plans.

Well, last year certainly was one for the history books. Of all the issues amplified by the pandemic in 2020, housing and its affordability has been among the most universal, and the most important. Tight vacancy and escalating rents, construction cost and process challenges, plummeting interest rates and a dearth of listings, CERB and eviction bans, renovictions and rent control, escalating homelessness and guerilla shelters. The jury is still far out on 2021, of course, but the challenges and conversations around housing show no signs of a speedy resolution.

I’ve been trying and failing for some time to write about housing; what’s been happening in our region, and how those trends have been affected by the ongoing pandemic. Part of my challenge has been simply keeping up to date – these days you can’t go more than a week or so without getting hit with some new and relevant information. Another part of my challenge has been the complexity of the issue. Housing is the bottom line that many personal, economic, and policy issues fall down to; it is difficult to understand one major facet of the issue without an appreciation for the others.

Originally my goal for this piece was to do a punchy listicle with a couple interesting data points. In my naivete, I established a working title of “3 Charts to Explain Housing”. However, I’ve found it impossible to weave together anything worth saying using so few threads. So, with apologies to our ever-patient marketing staff and any of you who were wishing for a light read, I give you: Seven Facets of Our Housing Situation Explained (with eight charts).  

POPULATION GROWTH

While the COVID-exodus to Atlantic Canada from elsewhere in the country has received much media attention over the past few months, it is really a sideshow. Despite the interesting anecdotes about sight-unseen sales in (formerly) sleepy markets, or Realtors® conducting showings via Zoom, overall interprovincial migration is not significantly different in 2020. We have longer term and more fundamental growth drivers affecting our region. Many of these have been a significant source of housing demand over recent years, but in some cases, have waned under pandemic conditions:

Oil Patch Kaput

During the tar sands heyday from late 2004 to late 2015 out-migration from Nova Scotia to Alberta averaged about 1,250 people every quarter. That’s one Antigonish per year. For eleven years straight. These days, with oil trading at half its price, the exodus has collapsed by a similar proportion while in-migration from Alberta has remained comparatively steady. The result: in the 62 quarters from Q1 2000 to Q2 2015, net migration from Alberta to Nova Scotia was positive only 3 times. In the 21 quarters since (no data yet for Q4 2020), it’s only been negative once. A penny saved is a penny earned.

Real Estate Refugees

Yes, there is certainly a notable inflow of population and home-buying capital from other Canadian regions that have experienced stronger price appreciation, and worse pandemic performance. The work-from-home narrative dominates the conversation on this, but it is not the whole story. This is a combined house price arbitrage play with the beginnings of a structural trend, principally from Ontario and British Columbia, driven by population aging as households execute longer-standing plans to retire Down East. It has been going on for several years, with 2017 being a breakout after Toronto and Vancouver posted eyewatering year-over-year house price increases. The after-spring bump in 2020 from ON and BC is only about 10% higher than the same period last year.

Increasing Immigration

The immigration story was really kicked off in 2016 with the much-publicized landings of Syrian Refugees however other streams for entry really took things from there. Nova Scotia went from welcoming about 610 international immigrants per year (2005-2015 average), to more than 1,390 per year since. Numbers have waned in 2020, obviously, but the Federal Government was early to state that immigration, and increased immigration at that, is a core element of its post-pandemic economic recovery plans. We therefore expect this trend to pick right back up as vaccination is rolled out globally.

Student Bodies

Efforts to recruit international students (and their sizable tuition fees) have been front and centre for post-secondary institutions for some time. However, the Trump presidency apparently supercharged things as a significant number of prospective students have diverted to other western countries who didn’t follow the same nationalistic and isolationist path. This is such an interesting twist of fate that it deserved its own chart:

(Note: Household growth is derived by applying occupancy rates to population growth estimates from Statscan. Occupancy rates are interpolated/extrapolated from census figures, and are approximately 2.3 people/household for recent years. This approach likely underestimates the number of households added as the demographics of new arrivers lean towards smaller households than the general population.)

Among the fun things to look forward to at this time of year is PNC’s annual (37 years now!) Christmas Price Index, in which they calculate the prices of the twelve gifts from the classic song, “The Twelve Days of Christmas”.  The highest increase year-over-year was for the two turtledoves, up 50% to $450, which contrast to a few of the other avian gifts: swans, calling birds, and a partridge will cost you the same this year as last…as will minimum wage milk maids.  This year’s index accounts for cancellations of many live performances: the unavailability of dancing ladies, leaping lords, pipers, and drummers means that the total cost of these gifts is down over last year.  How far down, though, is a matter of measurement.  If you were to buy just one of each of the gifts – one goose, one ring, one French hen, etc. – you’d pay 58.5% less than last year, for a grand total of $16,168.14 (USD).  But you can also measure by the full cost of all the gifts –   both the turtle doves, all the geese, none of the performers – to arrive at grand total for 2020 of $105,561.80, down just 38% since 2019.  Or, and I’m assuming this is based on the one-of-each option, PNC also provides a “core” index, which excludes the Swans-a-Swimming, the price of which is apparently the most volatile.  The core index for 2020 costs $3,043.14, down 88.2% from 2019. 

So, the same index has three different year-over-year price changes.  That provides a perfect segue into a discussion of the critical thought, and careful consideration required before relying on Price Indices for decision making, planning, and policy purposes…there are many available from which to choose, including the overall, oft quoted, Consumer Price Index (CPI).  This is not to say that price indices are not a valuable tool – just that care needs to be exercised in choosing and using them.

Twice a year, we undertake a comprehensive market survey of rental office and warehouse space; the summary results include average net rental rates, realty taxes and operating expenses, and gross rental rates.  As part of our analysis, we look at the relationship between the All-Items CPI and the total for realty taxes and operating costs (RTCAM), over a five-year period.  The CPI is a measure of the cost of a certain “basket of goods”, and as such generally measures the rate of inflation – which is expected to be reflected in the costs to operate a building.  The fact that the cost to operate a building includes a different basket of goods than that required to run a household – more cleaning and heating, fewer sneakers, school supplies, and food items – makes it unsurprising that, while these two measures usually move generally in concert, there can be significant variation.  This year, where costs have shifted up and down across various sectors, particularly highlights the challenge of relying on the CPI as a surrogate for other baskets of good: the five-year ratio between CPI and RTCAM, describing how the RTCAM moved for each 1 percentage point change in the CPI, varied from a 1.14 percentage point decrease in office RTCAM in Saint John NB, to a 1.01 percentage point increase in Fredericton, with Moncton, St. John’s NL, and Halifax falling at varying points along that range.  December’s survey includes both office and warehouse space in Halifax, and there is a differential between the ratio of CPI to RTCAM for the two sectors, with office RTCAM coming in at 0.59 to 1 percentage point change in CPI, and warehouses coming in at a ratio of 1.2 to 1. 

PNC says about their index:

The PNC Christmas Price Index® is an annual tradition which shows the current cost for one set of each of the gifts given in the song "The Twelve Days of Christmas."

It is similar to the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which measures the changing prices of goods and services like housing, food, clothing, transportation and more that reflect the spending habits of the average American.

The goods and services in the PNC Christmas Price Index® are far more whimsical, of course. And most years, the price changes closely mirror those in the U.S. Consumer Price Index. This year, the approach to PNC’s CPI takes into account the sociopolitical environment brought on by the pandemic by using the Index to provide an analysis of current market conditions, while including the impacts of COVID-19 as highlighted by the data. 

It’s a fun way to measure consumer spending and trends in the economy. So, even if Pipers Piping or Geese-a-Laying didn’t make your gift list this year, you can still learn a lot by checking out why their prices have increased or decreased over the years.

It’s definitely worth checking out.  And if you’re interested, we publish the summary results of our market surveys on our website and through email distribution.  Watch for them in the New Year – or contact us to subscribe.  Wishing you and yours all the best for the holidays, from all of us at Turner Drake & Partners Ltd.  

Alex Baird Allen is the Manager of Turner Drake's Economic Intelligence Unit. If you'd like more information on market research or our semi-annual Market Survey, you can reach Alex at 902-429-1811 Ext.323 (HRM), 1-800-567-3033 (toll free), or email ABairdAllen@turnerdrake.com 

Residential fires are soaring, causing millions of dollars in damages, and claiming the lives of many. While this headline may sound shocking, this has become a catastrophic reality for many apartment owners across Canada and worldwide. It’s quite clear how the ongoing pandemic has changed our daily lives in a socio-physical sense - most notably the way in which we interact with others, and how we navigate the shopping malls and hallways in our apartment or condo buildings. What many have not considered however, is the increased risk of fire-related emergencies resulting from higher daytime occupancy levels in multi-unit residential buildings.

National Fire Prevention Week runs from October 4th to 10th. This might not be something you typically note in your calendar, however, if you are an apartment owner or manager, you should! If you have yet to equip your building and tenants with clear evacuation plans, or reviewed your latest fire-insurance policy, these items should be top of mind.

It goes without saying that the COVID-19 pandemic has directly and abruptly affected both short-term cash flow and long-term economic prospects for real estate owners in the Atlantic region. Commercial and investment property has been particularly hard-hit, with hospitality and retail property profoundly (and in many cases, irreversibly) impacted. 

Not surprisingly, my colleagues and I field multiple inquires a week respecting the potential for property tax relief.  Unfortunately, we find ourselves delivering the unwelcome news that there’s very little immediate aid available; in some cases, not for years to come. A little background will help to explain why this is so.

Property taxes are the product of a property’s assessed value (a point in time estimate of market value which is calculated as of a legislated date: in assessment parlance, the “base date”), and the applicable tax rate.  In most Atlantic Canadian jurisdictions, assessment and taxation are separate functions.  Assessed values are calculated by assessing authorities (the Property Valuation Services Corporation in NS; Service New Brunswick in NB; the Department of Finance in PEI; the Municipal Assessment Agency and the City of St. John’s in NL); mil rates are set (and taxes collected) by the municipalities.

In providing relief, Atlantic Canada’s assessing authorities and its municipalities are stymied by legislative authority that varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.  The ability for the pandemic to be reflected in assessed values (which, in all four provinces, are to market value) depends to large degree on the base date:

On the taxation side, we have prepared a reference guide detailing the myriad of programs available in various Atlantic Canadian cities, towns and municipalities[1].  It is available on our websites at https://www.turnerdrake.net and https://www.turnerdrake.com/products/propertytax.asp. The vast majority have been limited to extension of tax deadlines and reductions in interest rates applied to arrears.

There is little that can be done with respect to the tax rate applied to your property[1]; your tax management strategy should therefore focus on your assessed value.  What will be the impact of the pandemic on values?  In my opinion, few property types will escape unscathed, and for many, recovery will be protracted. While I don’t have a crystal ball, we do have a rear view: experience in the aftermath of historic cataclysmic events- e.g. the recessions of the early 1990s and 2007-2009; 911; and SARS, for example- will all provide guidance in establishing the penalties on the value of ICI real estate.

Property taxes can be an enigma under conventional circumstances. COVID-19 has created a property tax quagmire. My colleagues and I would be happy to provide advice on a property-specific basis.

Have you ever gazed over a decrepit old building, or vacant parcel of land, thinking to yourself “This would be the perfect place for…”

Taking this vision and transforming it into reality is the premise behind an as-if-complete valuation. This form of valuation provides a current or prospective (future) value opinion of a development prior to it being constructed. In addition to undeveloped properties, real estate owners and developers can also utilise this form of valuation to determine the contributory value of renovations to an existing property.  

Owners and developers typically require this form of valuation as an input for mortgage financing and proceed in one of two ways: The property can be valued as though it were complete as of the effective date of the report or alternatively; it can be valued as at an assumed date of completion. Regardless the path, the values presented rely heavily on the standard described in the report, and the proposed timeframe of the development.

Working together with architects, engineers, lenders, designers and planners is an integral part of orchestrating the materials required for this form of valuation. Building plans and renderings paint the backdrop while finish schedules, cost estimates and operating projections provide focus to the finer economic details required for these projects. 

Financing details are based on the lender’s relationship with the developer together with their experience completing similar developments, financial position, cost of the project and overall loan-to-value ratio. Once the as-if-complete value of the property is determined the bank will typically schedule formal draws for the various milestones of the development. For example; the first milestone may cover the cost of excavation and site work, foundations, framing and roofing. This is where experience, organisation and timing are key to the financial and fiscal success of the project.

Often developers run into issues during initial milestones, where projected budgets are exceeded and the initial draw does not cover the costs allocated to such milestones. This can occur as a result of unforeseen circumstances, an unexperienced contractor or builder, fluctuating material costs etc.  If the developer does not have access to an outside source of funds to complete this work and proceed to the next milestone, lenders will sometimes issue a “swing-line” or short-term, interest-only line of credit to see them through to the completion of the milestone at hand. Progressing through the first and second milestones of a project are often the most difficult as they can be the most capital intensive. Paying close attention to cash flows and budget are paramount to ensuring the financing terms are met and the project is completed as scheduled.

While construction pushes forward and developers achieve various milestones, it is typically the responsibility of the valuation consultant to confirm the work completed falls in-line with the details described in the report. Various meetings and site visits are completed throughout the project, and progress reports filed to the lender as per the scheduled incremental milestones leading up to, and including, the completion of the project.

New developments and renovations are susceptible to a number of different variables that could easily alter a project cost or timeline. Such variables can heighten the risk of a project; therefore, including proper contingencies and mapping out the development in fine detail will aid in minimising risk and provide additional comfort to lenders considering your project. 

The ongoing pandemic has had a tremendous effect on the world and although primarily negative in nature, many clients have taken this additional time to dream big and “put the wheels in motion.” Formerly neglected ideas are re-surfacing and with the help of this form of valuation we are playing a key role in bringing these ideas to fruition. 

Patrick Mitchell is a consultant in our Valuation Division and has extensive experience in the valuation of projects that are in early stages of development, or have yet to break ground. Patrick’s passion for design and architecture has strengthened his relationships with local architects, builders and developers. For more information about our range of Valuation® services, or more details concerning as-if-complete valuations, feel free to contact Patrick at (902) 429-1811 or pmitchell@turnerdrake.com

In truth, very few people get the chance to suffer the trauma of an expropriation.  You have to be in the wrong place at the right time. But if and when your opportunity does come, your best hope is to emerge financially “whole”, albeit a little battle scarred, confident that the lawmakers have your back through their expropriation legislation.

Expropriation legislation has its roots in the Dickensian days of the English railway boom of the 19^th century, a time of rapid industrialization that needed legislative “devices” to hurry things along. Reforms followed until eventually the individual was adequately protected against the state. In Canada, legislative reform came along in much more modern times, but by the 1970’s most provinces had a pretty decent code of expropriation compensation in place.  And Nova Scotia was among the best of the best.  Its 1973 Expropriation Act fully embraced the commendable philosophy that because expropriated owners were being deprived of their property against their will, they should not be treated as typical litigants. Instead they were entitled to be satisfied – at the authority’s expense – that they were indeed being treated fairly. The playing field was level: all was good.

Alas, things have changed since then. Numerous subtle and not-so-subtle changes have been introduced over the past 25 years that have tilted the playing field.  And always in the same direction. Perhaps the biggest changes, in the Nova Scotia Expropriation Act at least, have been with regard to the expropriating authority’s legal obligation to reimburse a claimant’s fees. The original safety net was contained, in plain and simple language, in section 35 of the original Nova Scotia Expropriation Act.  It entitled an expropriated land owner to be reimbursed for “the cost of one appraisal and the legal and other costs reasonably incurred…in asserting a claim for compensation”. Checks and balances protected the public purse from frivolous abuse, but the basic intent was that, win, lose or draw, an owner – rich or poor - was entitled to be heard at the authority’s expense. 

The first change came in 1996. Section 35 was abruptly repealed and in its place stood a re-enacted section 52. Things became considerably more dicey for the property owner with respect to the reimbursement of costs, which were now only assured if the owner proceeded to a hearing and won outright.  The owner was now in much the same position, for cost purposes, as a typical litigant who chooses to engage in combat.  Of course, there is nothing preventing an amicable settlement without resorting to a hearing – and the vast majority of expropriations are settled that way – but the safety net of section 35 was removed.

2019 saw more changes when the Nova Scotia government introduced a Tariff of Costs to control the amount of appraisal, legal and other experts’ costs that an expropriating authority must legally reimburse. Henceforth the amounts that combative property owners can recover are prescribed by law.  With respect to appraisal fees, the allowable amounts depend on the complexity of the case (measured against a rather loosely defined benchmark called “ordinary difficulty”).  In some cases the Tariff will be sufficient. In other cases it will fall short.  The same with the reimbursement of legal fees.  Claimants may very well have to reach into their own pockets to pursue their case from now on, as would a typical litigant. If you think that sounds a tad unfair, you are right.  After all, no one chooses to be expropriated. And from my experience it is always more time consuming, and therefore more costly, to represent a claimant than it is to represent an expropriating authority. For property owners, this is a once-in-a-lifetime event.  The rules have to be explained; facts sorted from fiction; expectations managed. Expropriating authorities, on the other hand, can draw on their in-house resources and often have a wealth of experience.  The conversations are different.

And it’s not just the issue of cost reimbursement that has been tilted. Another amendment in 1996 denied compensation for loss of access along provincial highways when alternative access is being provided by new service or access roads. An odd, and as far as we know unique, twist to the Nova Scotia compensation code. More recently, a 2019 amendment introduced a new definition of Disturbance to the Nova Scotia Expropriation Act, a particular head of claim that arises when a claimant has to relocate.  The old words had withstood the test of time, undefined but “undisturbed” for a generation. In Nova Scotia it is now very narrowly – and again, as far as we know, uniquely - defined and will inevitably defeat claims that have previously been upheld.  Indeed that’s the whole point.

Changes to the Expropriation Act in Nova Scotia have usually been introduced as knee jerk reactions following adverse decisions by the courts, introduced as helpful “clarifications” to help them get it right next time. Challenging an expropriation and pursuing a claim through the courts has never been for the faint-hearted.  But these days you might need a war chest with no guarantee that you will emerge financially “whole”. 

Lee Weatherby is the Vice President of our Counselling Division. If you'd like more information about our counselling services, feel free to contact Lee at (902) 429-1811 or lweatherby@turnerdrake.com

COVID-19, despite months of rumblings that it might be on its way, arrived rather abruptly on our doorstep.  Collectively, we shifted from theoretical preparations “in case” and “if” the virus impacted us directly, to many people working from home, a transition that happened within days in some cases.  Ready or not, here it came. 

Now, just (“just”!) a couple of months later, the next transition is upon us, as the economy reopens and we figure out, industry by industry and company by company, what the new normal will look like.  It’s a question on the minds of many, and one my department has spent a fair bit of energy contemplating from our makeshift at-home workstations (check out this CBC article for a peek at mine…kids and various home schooling accoutrements banished for the deception of professional appearances).  The short answer is that it is too soon to tell, though there are rumours and rumblings that work-from-home will continue for some people and/or companies (demand for that may come from either end of the equation).

The longer answer is that major recessions usually result in a sea change in how office space is utilised.  After the 1990 recession, which coincided to a certain degree with the advent of cell phones and the internet, there was a rise in “telecommuting”, some people working from home, and “hot desking” where different people used the same desk at different times of the day.  Cubicles rose in prominence over individual offices (as evidenced by every 90s movie that takes place in an office).  Post-2008 recession, the movement was to open concept offices, with bullpen style areas where everyone has a laptop and a cell phone and shares common space and/or works from home part of the time.  Each of these shifts, from individual offices to cubicles to bullpens, equates to fewer square feet of office space per employee…which in turn equates to lower costs for companies, for whom office space is often the single largest expense after HR. 

The logical next step in the continuum is an increase in employees working from home, with an overall reduction in the amount of office space leased.  This could be driven by employees who find they like shedding their commute and are productive at home (and expect to be more so when schools and daycares reopen).  It could also be mandated by employers who find that cutting workplace expenses - from rents to coffee supplies - can come without significant detriment to their business model. 

There are some companies for whom this is a viable option, but for others, it is not practical.  Will confidential meetings between lawyers and clients take place in lawyers’ basement playrooms, or out in public at coffee shops?  Unlikely.  Further, many industries rely on the sharing of ideas to innovate and problem solve.  The benefit of casual conversations and impromptu collaborative meetings is worth the expense of working together in one location.  So there will remain demand for professional office space from certain sectors for a variety of sound reasons.   

Worth noting, too, is the consideration that the pre-COVID bullpen office set up has significant drawbacks until (unless) a vaccine becomes available: shared space is not practical from a public health perspective, and may redirect those who can’t realistically work from home long term, to shift back to individual offices that ameliorate physical distancing.  That is: more square feet of space per employee.    

And then the final elephant in the room is the total elimination of demand for office space from companies which do not survive the economic fallout of the pandemic.  It is too soon to measure how extensive this will be, but there certainly will be casualties of a recession that may well be deep and prolonged. 

So, coming full circle to the short answer: even with lots of companies opting to return to offices, a decline in overall demand for office space is certainly expected, probably over the next couple of years.  Because leases are typically signed on 3-5 year terms (or longer), a “shadow” vacancy of leased-but-vacant space could surface first (i.e. space for sublease), though if the original lessees can’t pay, the space is effectively just vacant regardless of any contractual debt on it (distinguished from, for example, a healthy company who chooses to move to a new office building when they still have a year left on their lease).  With increasing vacancy, landlords will opt first for rental incentives to entice tenants to their space, and there will be downward pressure on net rental rates.  Our June Market Survey is underway now…stay tuned in the coming months for the early indicators of impacts on the market.  

No one wants to own a “dirty” property; it is important to both Buyer and Seller that they understand how a sale can be impacted by the discovery of contamination. From the Seller’s standpoint, they may need to remediate the property prior to selling. Remediation is costly and time consuming – it can take a year or longer to test the soil and groundwater, adequately address the contamination, and ensure that the site is fully remediated. The Seller will incur carrying costs, such as property taxes, during the remediation.

There will be other problems too, in addition to the time delay. The Buyer’s lender will rarely finance a dirty property and will almost always require a Phase 1 environmental assessment to confirm that it is not contaminated. In most cases it will be the Buyer who commissions the Phase 1 report. This consists of historical research of site… do past uses point to possible contamination from chemicals or hydrocarbons?...  was the property previously used to house a gas station?... were manufacturing or service uses such as dry cleaning, sand blasting (lead paint), etc. conducted on the property?... The term “mad as a hatter” originates in the fact that hat manufacturing utilised mercury as part of the process, with unfortunate consequences for the participants. The Phase 1 audit will also investigate existing and surrounding property uses that may have contaminated the site; for example a bus depot whose leaking underground storage tanks have resulted in contamination of the ground water and its concomitant migration into surrounding “downstream” properties. It will also consider the building materials used on site…. are the plaster, or ceiling tiles, likely to contain asbestos; the fluorescent lights, PCBs; the paint, lead; what other horrors lurk in the building structure? If anything suspicious comes out of this research, the Phase 1 report will recommend a more invasive Phase 2 investigation requiring drilling or removal of building material for laboratory investigation.

A Phase 1 report can cost anywhere between $1,200 and $3,000 for most small to medium sized properties. Since a Phase 2 environmental assessment comprises soil and ground water testing, more intrusive testing and the use of heavy equipment, this study can easily cost over $20,000. Should the Phase 2 study identify contaminants, the level of contamination and the intended use of the property by the Buyer, will determine the degree of remediation required. If contaminants exceed the maximum allowable level, the Department of Environment has to be notified and they will issue an order to remediate the property within a specified timeline.

Remediation can be time consuming. Once the contaminated soil has been removed from the property, an environmental consultant will set up “test events” whereby the soil will be re-tested to confirm that the remediated property falls within the specified guidelines. These test events usually occur once every three months over a year long time period. However, if the groundwater below the property is not static, the test events may register that it is “clean” during one test and then show contamination at the next test event, as the groundwater migrates back and forth.  

The intended use of property also determines the overall impact of the contamination and the level of required remediation. For example, a former gas station site  to be sold for apartment development requires a higher level of remediation than a site to be utilised for industrial purposes…. properties intended for residential use are held to a higher environmental standard than properties to be occupied for commercial uses. 

Since the Seller is in the chain of title they may be held liable for contamination after the property has been sold… even though they may not be the source of the contamination! This is why mortgagees, such as banks, will rarely foreclose contaminated property… and why governments would be wise to avoid expropriating pulp mills (Government of Newfoundland take note!). It is therefore to the Seller’s advantage to establish the present extent of contamination (if any) to safeguard themselves for the future. If a property is sold and is subsequently discovered to be contaminated, the Seller will need to establish that it was “clean” when they sold it, otherwise they could be held liable for the contamination even if they did not cause it.

A Buyer is similarly advised: If they purchase a property without undertaking the proper environmental assessment to confirm that the property is “clean”, they are at risk; they could be held liable for the contamination, even though they did not cause it, and be ordered to remediate the site at significant cost. Unless the Buyer is a risk seeker they should invest in hiring an environmental consultant as part of their overall property purchase due diligence.

The moral of this story? Don’t be penny wise and pound foolish! It matters not whether you are a Buyer or Seller: a few thousand dollars spent on an environmental audit can save you hundreds of thousands in potential remediation costs. 

Ashley Urquhart is the Senior Manager of our Brokerage Division.  She has a vast network of contacts and would be happy to assist you with all your leasing needs. If you would like more information, please feel free to contact Ashley at (902) 429-1811 or aurquhart@turnerdrake.com.

As summer edges near, warm days pull our minds and hearts outdoors - reminding us of the natural areas that make Nova Scotia a beautiful place to live.  From the maple-dappled shores of the St. Marys River to the sweeping rocky coastlines of Yarmouth’s Tusket Islands Nova Scotia has an abundance of natural beauty spanning countless ecosystems.  These natural spaces from a web of protected and semi-protected landscapes across the province ranging from provincial nature reserves to prime agricultural lands protected in perpetuity from development beyond a plough’s furrow.

Canada’s legal concept of ‘owning’ land, though heavily based in a euro-centric view culturally, does provide tools to assist in the protection of our natural environment.  Most of the time when someone purchases a property what they are actually paying for is a registered legal interest in the property which allows them to use it unencumbered by others (the “Fee Simple” Interest). However, there are many ways to split up this interest and each comes with a value reflecting what the interest holder can and cannot do on the property.  For example, by placing a restrictive covenant on lands, or placing ownership with a land trust, it is possible to prevent the spoilage of natural places.

Valuing a partial interest in land is a critical step in protecting wild areas through the use of Land Trusts, which are not-for-profit organisations dedicated to the protection and stewardship of special places including rare species habitat, areas of historic cultural significance, and precious agricultural land.  Sometimes these Land Trusts acquire property outright through donation or purchase, and other times an interest is granted to the Land Trust as a Conservation Easement which details what is – and is not – permissible activity on the land.  In this way, these Land Trusts have steadily grown a network of protected places over the course of many decades.

For many landowners, the decision to donate land is driven by a love of nature or a desire for a lasting legacy.  As an added incentive there can be tax breaks associated with these ecological gifts – the value of which must be determined by a professional appraiser.  In this way Turner Drake has played a quiet (but important) role in the protection of an abundance of properties which ultimately contribute to Nova Scotia’s roster of important wild places.  We are fortunate that through this process, we have walked across places few Nova Scotians have seen or heard of, but which nonetheless provide safe haven for many plants and animals.

The season for outdoor exploration is here and given current restrictions in urban-based gatherings Nova Scotians have a unique opportunity to explore their surroundings and connect with their natural environment in a meaningful way.

Just how important is proper fire safety planning?  In addition to potential loss of life and property damage, lack of proper Fire Safety Plans can land you with a hefty fine…or even potential jail time!

Section 2.8 of the National Fire Code of Canada states that any building required by the National Building Code to have a fire alarm must also have an approved Fire Safety Plan. Halifax Regional Municipality By-law F100 also states that, “Every person who contravenes or fails to comply with these regulations or fails to carry out an order made under these regulations, is guilty of an offence and is liable on summary conviction, to a fine of not more than $5000, or in default of payment of the fine, to imprisonment for a term not exceeding six months”.

Concerned? Turner Drake’s Lasercad® Division can prepare two types of Fire Plans to help manage your properties’ fire safety concerns: Fire Emergency Plans and Fire Exit Plans.

Pictured below are examples of both types of plans prepared for a local client. Fire Emergency Plans provide a detailed layout of each floor in a building, showing the location of all demising walls, doors, windows, plumbing fixtures, etc. In addition to providing a detailed layout of the space, Fire Emergency Plans indicate the precise location of all implements relevant to fire safety. The lower ground floor of a Halifax Heritage Building pictured below illustrates the exact location of all fire safety devices on the floor, such as Fire Extinguishers, Smoke Detectors, Exit Signs, Pull Stations, etc.

Fire Exit Plans are prepared to show the general layout of a floor’s common area accessible to the general public, and indicate key features necessary to ensure a safe evacuation in the event of a fire. Pictured below is a Fire Exit plan prepared for the ground floor of the same building.  The plan clearly indicates the location of the Fire Exit Plan, marked “You Are Here”.  Additionally, it shows readers the location of all Pull Stations in the event these must be activated to trigger the building’s fire alarm. Most importantly, Fire Exit Plans guide readers to safety via proper evacuation routes while also highlighting all emergency exits, and applicable Muster Points for the assembly of building occupants at a safe distance from the building.

If your building exceeds 3 storeys and does not currently have Fire Emergency or Fire Exit Plans please give us a call. Our Lasercad® team would be happy to discuss how we can help improve your building’s Fire Safety while also answering any questions you may have regarding local safety requirements.

As a child I imagined what it would be like to score a goal for the home team in a sold out stadium.  The deafening sound of tens of thousands of fans celebrating my efforts was amazing.  I still have a passion for sport, but by day, my passion is property tax so I read with interest some recent reports on how a handful of pro sports franchises significantly reduced their property tax bills.  The Montreal Canadians, San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers had their property tax bills slashed by 40%, 50% and 56% respectively.  Chances are your business doesn’t occupy a stadium, but there are tax lessons to be learned for any businesses that owns or occupies a Special Purpose Property.      

Special Purpose Properties are properties that are designed in a way that makes them good for a single use.  Some uses (like hotels) appeal to a broad array of investors, but others appeal to a very limited market making them difficult to value.  Stadiums obviously fall in this category but so do churches, schools, power plants, hospitals, and most purpose built manufacturing facilities.

The most common method for estimating the tax assessment of a limited market, special purpose property is the cost approach.  You start by estimating how much it would cost to construct the improvements, deduct allowances for all forms of depreciation and then you add the land value.  Simple enough.  So how is it possible that Bank of America Stadium (the home of the Carolina Panthers) can have estimates of its value ranging from $87m to $472m? 

It’s because valuation experts will differ in how they account for “all forms of depreciation”.  Physical depreciation is readily understood, however properties can also suffer from functional and/or external depreciation. Although a stadium, pulp mill, food processing plant, church or hospital may have been meticulously maintained, it may be subject to significant amounts of functional and external depreciation if its configuration is sub-optimal, if it is poorly located, or if the economic prospects for which it was built have deteriorated in some way- all of which are grounds for a reduction in its assessed value.

The Bell Centre in Montreal opened in 1996.  It cost roughly $240m to construct (roughly $485m today).  The land is currently assessed at just over $50m and the total assessment now stands at $167m.  This implies a total depreciation from all causes of approximately 75%. Only a small amount (+/-1/3^rd) of this relates to physical depreciation as stadiums can have very long physical lives.  Anfield, Old Trafford, Fenway Park, and Wrigley Field are all more than 100 years old so the key to accurately estimating the total depreciation in a stadium (or any other special purpose property) is in identifying and quantifying functional and external depreciation. Unfortunately there aren’t any tables an assessor can use to estimate these forms of depreciation.  It requires an understanding of why the property was configured the way it is, how it would be configured were it to be re-built from scratch, and an understanding of the location and economic factors that apply to the use it was designed for.

During my career, consulting on behalf of taxpayers I’ve often heard the argument from assessing authorities “the owner is using it for the purpose in which it was built” and/or “the business is very successful” which leads to the question “how can there be significant functional and/or external depreciation.” In the Panthers case it’s true the stadium was being used for the purpose in which it was built.  It’s true that the business is viable (David Tepper acquired the Panthers including the stadium for $2.2b in 2018) but those are the wrong questions.  The right question is “would the business be worth more if it had the right stadium in the right location?”

The right stadium might have more seats, more private boxes, more places to sell advertising and might cost less to operate.  It might also be built in a location to make commuting easier so more fans buy tickets and spend more on concessions while they are at the game.  The same concepts hold true for any special purpose property.  A church located distant from its parishioners, a school with declining enrolment, a power plant compelled to use high priced coal, and a poorly configured manufacturing plant located too distant from its markets or its raw materials can all suffer from functional and/or economic depreciation.    

2020 property assessment notices are rolling out across Canada (New Brunswick is up next!).  If you own or occupy a special purpose property, make sure you ask the right questions when you decide if it’s time to request a review this year.  

Andre Pouliot is Vice President of our New Brunswick operations and Senior Manager of our Property Tax Division. For more information about our property tax services, feel free to contact Andre at (902) 429-1811 or apouliot@turnerdrake.com

CMHC has just released its annual rental market survey data, and the results are concerning for the Halifax Regional Municipality. After 2018’s record low vacancy, we’ve been eagerly waiting to see whether supply or demand would win the race this past year as both construction and population growth continue their fevered pace. Unfortunately for renters, it looks like demand has again won. With new supply undershooting by 280 units over the year, the overall vacancy rate has now plummeted from 1.6% to a new record low of 1.0% in 2019.

While the challenge of finding an apartment is stressful enough, unfortunately for renters the bad news doesn’t stop there. Vacancy rates are a leading indicator for rental rates, and this year’s results show the first hard evidence that tight market conditions are translating into price increases within the existing rental stock. Once the competition for limited available units heats up, price increases kick in as the market begins rationing too little supply among too much demand. While the statistics of overall average or median rents have been on the rise for a number of years, this has largely been driven by the addition of new, more expensive buildings to the rental pool. Yearly increases in existing buildings were muted, proceeding at around 2% per year even in record-setting 2018. However, thanks to the knock-on effects of that year’s diminutive vacancy rate, same-building rents in 2019 show an increase of 3.8%. This is nearly double the historical average, and the largest single-year increase on record. The 2019 vacancy rate of 1.0% therefore does not bode well for renters in this year to come. Things are going to get worse before they have a chance to get better!

On that note, what is it going to take for things to get better? Despite record-levels of construction in the purpose-built rental sector, the market supply is not growing fast enough to meet demand (hence the reduction in vacancy). Based on average figures for the last 3 years, the period where population growth has driven vacancy below its typical range, the calculations are humbling. HRM would need to increase the supply growth rate by about 13%, delivering an extra 230 units per year, just to stabilise the vacancy rate and keep up with the growth in demand. Of course, holding vacancy at 1% won’t help with prices. In order to return the market to a reasonable 3% vacancy rate, there would have to be a further increase of 23%, another 410 units per year, and this would have to be sustained for the next 3 years in order to get back to balanced market territory.

Multiunit starts were up in 2019, but only by 15%. This is an industry already at record activity levels and it strains to push the pace further. Additionally, provincial level data is suggesting HRM’s population growth may still be accelerating. As a result, odds are that a sufficient increase in the growth of rental supply is not about to materialise in the short term to provide relief.

So what solace can we offer? Well, it’s not much to take to the bank, but we may be seeing the start of demand-side trends that could help blow off some pressure. Much of the population growth pressure is driven by new people arriving in the city from elsewhere in the province, county, and world. Having a few years under their belt now, not-quite-so-recent migrants and non-permanent residents could start to flow out of the rental sector. Having found their feet, these groups may look to transition into the homeownership market as they seek to become more established (or, in the case of international students, simply move away as their studies conclude). Of course, there are also domestic trends to consider as well, and while rental demand growth from downsizing boomers is unlikely to relent, an increasing number of millennials are aging into their prime home buying years.

Often lost in the rental housing conversation is the fact that despite the frenzy of apartment construction, HRM has actually not built very much housing in the last few years overall. Unlike other Canadian cities where a surge of rental construction has come only after owner-occupied markets launched out of financial reach, HRM’s rental supply is the first preference for many. This means rental housing has been voraciously consumed at the same time that homebuilders have struggled to find demand for their available lots. As a result, the explosion of apartment construction has been largely offset by a drop in subdivision development.

Perhaps things are turning around, however. This past year may have heralded disappointment for renters, but it provided encouragement for owners; price action in the resale market showed strength that we haven’t seen since the early 2010s, and with it came an uptick in new construction activity as well. Is this evidence that some of HRM’s recent population growth is starting to flow from the rental sector into ownership?

This would certainly be good news for the homebuilding industry, which has been a shadow of itself for several years. It would also be good news for those still in the rental market, as a revived owner-occupied market would ease pressure on rentals by siphoning off some of the housing demand. Further, reactivating the idle resources in the homebuilding sector is an easier means of increasing the growth rate in total housing supply than hoping for the multiunit sector to conjure up a significant escalation in their maxed out production levels. 

Turner Drake is engaged in Housing Needs Analyses from coast to coast. To see how your community can benefit from the unique expertise of our Planning and Economic Intelligence team, call Vice President Neil Lovitt at (902) 429-1811 or nlovitt@turnerdrake.com.

I recently read an article by the CBC entitled “From sacred to secular: Canada set to lose 9,000 churches, warns national heritage group.”  The article discusses shrinking congregations as member’s age, move away or switch to new spiritual practices.  The article notes that in Eastern New Brunswick alone the Roman Catholic Archdiocese for example predicts that 20 of its 53 parishes will likely close if the congregations can’t find a way to generate more money.  With less money coming in and higher maintenance and operating costs churches face a challenging future.  

This article resonated with me on a professional level and personally as a member of a local church.  In the past few years our firm has been contacted by a number of churches, in particular church committees made up of congregation members.  These committees are assigned the unenvious task of exploring what to do with their beloved church as it faces the challenges of a shrinking congregation.

The common questions asked by committee members to aid in their decision making include:

• Scenario #1: What is the value of the church as it currently operates?
• Scenario #2: What is the value of the underlying land as a redevelopment?
• Scenario #3: What if the church were sold for an adaptive re-use, what would it be worth?

Essentially the committees want to determine the Highest and Best Use of their property, with values determined for each scenario so they can be make an informed decision, and ultimately present it to their congregation. 

Churches serve a number of roles for their community.  Outside of Sunday church services and funerals they are used as polling stations, a place of refuge after disasters, a place for private and not-for-profit groups to meet, a venue for concerts, fundraiser dinners and suppers and a place for performing arts to operate out of.  While church layout and design elements vary between denominations the fundamental church layout is fairly consistent.  Typically it includes a large entrance lobby, a sanctuary, parlour, large multi-use hall together with a kitchen and a number of smaller rooms used for meetings and general storage.  They tend to have several large, wide-open areas with high ceilings together with a large number of smaller classrooms.  As a result of their special purpose design they are challenging to value.

Scenario #1 - determining the Market Value of a church as it currently operates may not be as hard as it sounds.  There are numerous examples of church properties that have sold to other congregations for continued use as a church. 

Scenario #2 – determining the value of the underlying land for redevelopment is more challenging.  Often times the property has an institutional zone assigned to it, reflecting its current use.  However, this doesn’t necessarily limit the property to its current use.  It can often be re-zoned and redeveloped for a more intensive use.  Exploring this scenario involves discussions with the local planning authority, and in the end professional judgement is needed.  In addition to re-zoning, heritage designation issues, service and utility easements on the parcel and demolition costs for the existing building must be explored and considered under this scenario.     

Scenario #3 considers the value of the church for an adaptive re-use.  This can certainly be the most challenging scenario to consider when determining value.  The question here is “does the existing building actually provide additional, measurable value?”  Older buildings often have a lot of character and heritage value.  However, the cost for repairs and maintenance for these older buildings can be substantial.  They typically have masonry exterior walls with decorative features that require a lot of maintenance.  Their walls are often load bearing, meaning they cannot be easily reconfigured for another type of use without substantial structural work.  In addition they typically sit on expensive land, located in more central downtown locations with increasing pressure on land values.  All of these things can point to demolition of the existing church to make way for a new development.  However, that’s not always the case.

Recently I completed an assignment for a registered heritage property in Halifax.  The Centre Plan envisioned a low-density residential use for the property.  However, Package A contained significant implications for the property as it contains policy applicable to registered heritage properties.  This general policy allows for consideration of new development via discretionary approval processes (a “Development Agreement”) rather than zoning.  The overarching goal of the municipality is to encourage the rehabilitation and retention of heritage buildings. In order to do this, they will support a significant amount of new development intensity on sites containing a heritage building, using this as a tool to create sufficient value that the required conservation measures can be accommodated within an economically feasible project. This opens the possibility for significant building height and floor area ratios, as well as consideration of other cost-savings, such as lower parking requirements.

In that instance, the cost involved with demolishing the existing building coupled with only low-density anticipated for the site meant that demolition of the building was not the best option.  Alternatively, retaining the existing structure, or a substantial portion of it under policy contained within Package A of the Centre Plan opened up the possibility for significant building height and floor area ratios, as well as consideration of other cost-savings, such as lower parking requirements.  This second option meant a higher value for the property.  In that instance the best option was retaining the existing building for an adaptive re-use as part of a larger development.

The take-away here is that valuing churches or special purpose properties is not a straightforward exercise.  With shrinking congregations and higher operating costs these types of assignments are becoming increasingly more common.  They can be complicated and require a team approach to valuing the property with assistance from planners with a solid understanding of the Centre Plan.

For more information on the valuation services we provide visit our Valuation and Advisory Services site https://www.turnerdrake.org.

On Wednesday September 4^th, I had the pleasure of presenting before the Standing Committee on Law Amendments regarding the assessment and taxation of heavy industry in New Brunswick.  I was pleased to see such a high level of interest from Committee members in understanding how property tax assessments (which are based on market value) are calculated. 

Fair assessments start with accurate estimates of a property’s value.  In a market value assessment system, there are no “breaks” or “deals” for property owners.   Assessment professionals take their cues from the market and adjust their models so all assessments approximate market value.

Understanding the assessment system means understanding market value and the factors that influence it.  Most of us have a reasonable understanding of the factors that influence the value of our homes.  We understand that a strong housing market drives higher values for all houses.  We understand that a property with features that purchasers desire (e.g. great kitchen; open concept design; a finished basement) will have a higher value than one that lacks these features or is in a state of disrepair.   We understand “location, location, location”, and the benefit of being close to amenities like parks and schools, and the disadvantage of being located next to negative influences like landfills or flood zones.  

Although the market for heavy industrial properties is global as opposed to local, the factors that influence their value are not dissimilar.  When markets are strong (i.e. there is a balance between the number of buyers and sellers), values can be stable.  When markets are weak (there are more sellers than buyers), values will fall.  Individual facilities can become less appealing to buyers as they get older, or if the building design and layout will not accommodate the most efficient technology or process.  Location also applies.  Instead of proximity to parks and schools, ask if the facility is located close to its raw material, or close to where it sells its final product?  Does the location offer a competitive advantage or disadvantage in terms of the cost of inputs to production?

The 2013/2014 re-assessment of pulp and paper mills in New Brunswick generated questions from the Committee and provides an excellent case study for the factors that impact the market value of heavy industrial properties generally.  If you understand the factors that impact housing values, consider the following scenario. Imagine an older neighborhood with houses built up over a period of 100 years.  The market is poor, and there are significantly more sellers than buyers.  When you look up and down the streets, approximately 1/3^rd of the houses are vacant and boarded up while they wait to be demolished.  Demand is weak generally, but the houses in this neighborhood are especially less appealing than newer houses because they are older and are lacking in amenities that purchasers require.  The purchasers themselves have concluded that it would be much less expensive to build a new house than to modernize the older structures. In fact, the houses are so functionally obsolete, there are builders constructing houses across town with all of the amenities purchasers demand for less than half the cost of reconstructing replicas of the homes in the older neighborhood.  

This was the state of the market for pulp and paper mills at the time of the reassessment.  Maritimers will recall closure of mills in Bathurst, Dalhousie, Miramichi, Brooklyn, and Port Hawkesbury; all but one were subsequently demolished.  Assessors and Appeal Boards in assessment jurisdictions across the country were tasked with coming up with an estimate of the market value of these assets. Many experts provided testimony, and Appeal Boards in contested hearings in Ontario ordered assessment reductions ranging from 60% to 75%.  It shouldn’t be surprising that experts tasked with determining the values of mills in our region came to similar conclusions. 

To be clear, the assessment process is about ensuring that assessments reflect market value, not about providing a “break” or a “deal” on property taxes.   

André Pouliot is a Senior Manager in the Property Tax Division at Turner Drake & Partners Ltd.  André holds professional designations in Valuation with the Appraisal Institute of Canada, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and has more than 20 years of experience in the assessment and valuation of heavy industrial, commercial, and investment properties. 

What is building efficiency? and why is it becoming increasingly important for landlords, purchasers and tenants alike?

Building efficiency stems from a variety of factors, some of which are tied to the building envelope or overall operating systems (HVAC, lighting, etc.), while others are tied to design and layout.  Our Lasercad® team focuses on the latter and partners with building owners and managers to help analyse and optimise their building efficiency using the BOMA Standard Methods of Measurement.

Using a typical office building as an example, the ratio of a building’s Occupant Area to its Rentable Area will yield a gross-up or efficiency factor, where higher factors equal lower efficiency.  In other words—the larger the percentage of common area to tenant occupied area, the larger the gross-up, and thus less efficient the building.

Since common areas are proportionately allocated (“grossed up”) back to each tenant, they are a primary contributor to determining building efficiency.  Large common areas in a multi-tenant office or industrial building increase a tenant’s overall rent as a result of higher gross-up factors.  It’s a double whammy because tenants are also subjected to higher Common Area Maintenance (CAM) charges which are needed to service those common areas.  The results manifest themselves in a variety of ways—higher vacancy rates, lower net rents, reduced marketability.  The list goes on.  An inefficient building is less attractive to potential tenants as well as to buyers.

Optimising building efficiency is becoming more crucial as development restrictions evolve and building owners, managers and shareholders look to maximise their returns.  Whether it’s new construction, or the renovation of an existing building, the BOMA Standard Methods of Measurement have become an increasingly important input of the initial design phase, and more and more developers are seeking guidance and expertise from our knowledgeable staff.    

Below is an overview of two buildings we recently measured with common areas highlighted in blue.  123 Jones Drive has an excessive amount of common area, including a large lobby, washrooms and extensive hallways.  By contrast, 125 Jones Drive has approximately twice the footprint, yet has far less space taken up by common areas.  Our BOMA analysis revealed the impact of the vastly different layouts: 123 Jones Drive has a gross-up of approximately 30%, meaning their rent is based on 30% more space than they physically occupy (i.e. Floor Allocation Ratio: 1.30).  By contrast, 125 Jones Drive has a gross-up of only 9% (i.e. Floor Allocation Ratio: 1.09) therefore staking claim as the more efficient building.

If you’re interested in optimising your building’s efficiency using BOMA standards, please don’t hesitate to contact one of our analysts to discuss a few of our key strategies. Whether you’re in the preliminary design stages of new construction, or renovating an older building, optimising your space to yield the most efficient solution is our primary focus.

Patrick Mitchell is the Senior Manager of our Lasercad® Division and also highly involved in our Valuation Division.  For further information on how to maximise your property’s value through space certification please don’t hesitate to reach out. Patrick can be reached at pmitchell@turnerdrake.comor by phone at 902-429-1811. 

Who’s Going to Live In All Those Houses? – A common refrain when there’s a lot of residential development, whether houses, apartments, or condos.  Demographic trends can help to answer the question after the fact, but more importantly, attention to demographic patterns ahead of developing can ensure that housing supply meets demand.  After all, once it’s built, housing supply is here for the long haul.  At the recent NSPDA and LPPANS conference, Turner Drake led a workshop examining how individual decisions feed into patterns in housing supply and demand.  Here’s a brief recap (granted, a Nova Scotia‑oriented recap, but many of the principles apply across Atlantic Canada).
 
The Life Cycle of Housing
A typical person will move around a bit in their lives, starting out in their parents’ house (or houses: if we can infer Canadian behaviours from American stats, the average person owns 4.5 to 5.5 houses in their lifetime), moving to a rental apartment before buying their own home(s).  Later in life, they may downsize back to an apartment (possibly a more luxurious one this time) or condo, and finally make their way to a seniors’ residence. 
 
In-demand housing stock is heavily dependent on the dominant age groups in any given area.  The primary drivers of rental apartment demand are 20-29 year-olds, and the 65-and-older cohort, though the latter is increasingly shifting to a 75-year-plus bracket, and the former arguably extends to above age 35.      

Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census

The inverse is demand for owned housing, and the primary buyers are ages 25 through 45.  The 25-29/34 year-old age bracket falls into each of the renter and buyer categories: this is the first-time homebuyer age range, where we see the steepest increase in home-ownership rates.  The inference is that by age 45, buyers have bought their first home, possibly sold it and upsized to a larger family home, and here they stay for a prolonged period of time.

The graph above shows shrinkage in the brackets that include ages 20 through 45, but growth in the 65+ brackets.  Growth in the 55-64 year old bracket means that the latter will continue to expand as Baby Boomers age.  A 2018 Royal LePage survey of home buying intentions found that 42% of Atlantic Canadian Baby Boomers plan to downsize in retirement, with 23% intending to sell their homes and move to their secondary properties, i.e. to the cottage.  Thirty-two percent would consider buying a cottage in which to live in retirement.  The answer is probably no, but all this moving to the cottage raises the question of whether the province will see population ruralisation over the next few censuses, or whether the urbanisation of younger generations will continue in numbers sufficient to offset it?  The map below shows population change at the Dissemination Area level in Nova Scotia between the last two censuses: the concentration of purple (growth) in urban areas, in contrast with the pink and red (shrinkage) of the rural areas, indicates urbanisation.

Turner Drake started in 1976 with the mission to “provide solutions to real estate problems”. Initially we focused on valuation practice, but as real estate and its challenges have become more diverse, so too have we. Over the decades we’ve added complementary practice areas, expanding our perspective and deepening the expertise we could bring to the aid of our clients. Not long ago we once again ventured into new territory, adding a Planning Division. Rooted in the economic perspective that all our divisions share, our planning practice is unlike any other in Atlantic Canada.

Often we are called in to lend a hand on other Turner Drake assignments; bolstering property tax appeals, identifying implications for property valuation, or accurately reviewing development potential for brokerage clients. But we work most closely with our Economic Intelligence Unit, where our combination of GIS resources and expertise in the analysis of demographic, economic, and real estate market data have led us to some truly interesting planning assignments.  Working with a variety of both private and public sector clients, we’ve been involved in some of the largest planning and development projects in the Region. And some of the smallest. We’ve even picked up a few awards along the way. The challenges and outcomes are varied, but one thing is always common; an approach grounded in real estate economics.

Now, having just crossed the five-year milestone, we celebrate another; our first staff expansion. We put out the call shortly before the New Year: thanks to the many that applied, we are humbled by your interest in what we are trying to bring to the planning profession. So who is the new recruit ready to help us continue our success?    

Say Hello to the Newbie – Andrew Scanlan Dickie

Hello world, I’m Andrew – Turner Drake’s self-declared Newbie – here to share the story that is me; a story of adventure, intrigue, and spreadsheets. Yes, I’m that guy – the one who likes numbers just a little too much. I’m no mathematician, just a fanboy hoping to put my interests to use. I suppose that’s how I ended up here, but that will come.

My last names may throw you off, but I’m a born and bred Montrealer (I can feel the maritime Bruins and Leafs fans cringing). I decided to stay local for my first university degree, receiving a Bachelor of Commerce from McGill. I was young, inspired, and ready to take on the world. What does the mean? You got it – I went back to school, but this time away from home (sorry mom).

In Spring 2017, I graduated from Dalhousie University with a Masters of Planning degree. My short two years in Nova Scotia were nothing short of amazing; I met my soon to be wife, made amazing friends, and embraced the culture and lifestyle. But like many before me, I left to seek opportunities elsewhere.

Over the last two years I worked for a small-town municipal government in Ontario, wearing the many hats allotted to me and expanding my knowledge of planning policy. Don’t get me wrong, I loved it – but two things kept nagging at me: (1) Ontario’s got nothing on the Maritimes (there’s just something about the air here) and (2) my professional life was number deficient (ahem, nerd).

At the time, my partner and I were nestled in the suburbs. We had adopted a dog and enlisted the help of a real estate agent – we were getting pretty darn serious about putting down roots. So, one might say it was an 11th hour moment when the Planning Division opportunity for Turner Drake came up. I would say it was more an aligning of the stars; a chance to return to the place my partner and I hoped to call home and the lifestyle that comes with it, and an opportunity for me to develop both my business and planning expertise.

So here I am, ready to take on the world yet again and use my skills to contribute to the well-oiled machine that is Turner Drake. I’m chomping at the bit, so if you or your organisation are wondering how our expertise in development economics and real estate market analysis can enhance your planning process, just give us a call! Hint, hint, nudge, nudge – mandatory municipal planning strategies as part of the Nova Scotia Municipal Government Act are becoming a thing, so feel free to reach out about how that may affect you or how to explore that process. Alternatively, if you’re in Ontario and require some help navigating Ontario’s Planning Act, let me know!

To see how your project can benefit from our unique planning expertise, call Senior Manager Neil Lovitt at (902) 429-1811 or nlovitt@turnerdrake.com. We’ve got more horsepower than ever.

You are a tenant looking for commercial space to lease. You start your search by checking the local Kijiji ads and maybe check with a few colleagues when you realise that perhaps you are in over your head. One ad is asking for $14/ft.² net plus operating and taxes, while another is asking $3,500 per month gross. How do you compare these two rents?  

Or perhaps you are a new landlord, eager to fill up your new investment property and start making a return. You are not sure what to charge for rent, but you want to ensure that all of your operating expenses are recovered at the end of each operating year and you are not out of pocket for any expenses.

First, let’s summarise the rental terminology:

Net Rent: Often called “Base Rent”.  This is what you pay for the right to occupy a given space

Additional Rent: Often called “Common Area Maintenance (CAM) and Realty Taxes” or “Service Rent”:  This is the cost of operating a given space or property.  It includes such things as electricity, heat, garbage removal, snow clearing, etc.  It is typically paid for by the landlord and then recharged to the tenant on a per square foot basis.

Gross Rent: This is the sum of all rent paid (Net and Additional Rent).

In order to compare a net and gross lease, the rents must be converted to the same basis (ie: both must be compared on a per square foot basis, or both on a monthly rental basis).  For example: let’s say that a particular unit is 1,500 ft.² and it is being offered at a Net Rent of $14/ft.² and CAM and Taxes of $11/ft.².  Converting this to a monthly rent is as follows:

($14/ft.² + $11/ft.²) X 1,500 ft.² = $37,500 annual or $3,125 per month.

Alternatively, if you are provided with a rental rate of $3,500 per month gross for a 1,500 ft.² space, converting this to a per square foot rent is as follows:

$3,500 per month X 12 = $42,000 per annum / 1,500 ft.² = $28.00/ft.²

Now that you know how to calculate and compare net and gross rental rates…which one is better?  A net lease or a gross lease?...well it depends which side of the lease you are standing on.  The main difference between a net and gross lease, comes down to who shoulders the risk of increasing operating costs.  Under a gross lease, a tenant has committed to a set amount of rent for the lease term.  If the operating costs increase during the term of that lease term, the landlord “eats” those costs, thereby cutting into his/her effective rent.  Under a net lease however, the Additional Rent charged for operating costs fluctuates throughout the term of the lease.  Since landlords are recharging the tenants for common area costs, any increases are simply passed on to the tenant.  Tenants may prefer a gross lease since it represents a steady and guaranteed rent, and no risk of increasing common area costs during the length of the lease.  Landlords on the other hand tend to prefer a net lease where there is a steady and guaranteed base rent, and any risk of increased expenses is simply passed along to the tenant.

Ashley Urquhart is the Senior Manager of our Brokerage Division.  She has a vast network of contacts and would be happy to assist you with all your leasing needs.  Feel free to contact Ashley at (902) 429-1811 or aurquhart@turnerdrake.com.

Happy GIS Week! 

We were working recently on an assignment in the Annapolis Valley, the land of orchards and sloping vineyards…and that got us thinking about the impact of elevation on land area.  Ultimately, the question is one of land value: inherent in the value of agricultural land is potential crop yield.  More land area equals more growing potential equals more value.  Where slopes are acceptable or even advantageous, they may serve double duty in that sloped land is larger than it seems.

Our Valuation Division’s MO is to maximise your property value…this is an Economic Intelligence Unit blog post, and this is GIS Week, so we’re going to geek out on how to ensure you’re counting all your land, using a GIS, a little high school math, and a fair bit of Pythagoras[i]. 

Pythagoras’ Theorem defines the relationship between the sides of a right triangle with the equation a² + b² = c².  Side “c” is the hypotenuse, and is always the longest of the three sides. 

For illustrative purposes, we created a convenient, perfectly rectangular, parcel.  It measures 500 x 1,150 m, for a total area of 575,000 m² (57.5 hectares).

That is: 

But the land comprising this parcel is sloped.  The contour lines added to the image below demonstrate the degree of the slope; on average, there is an elevation differential between the highest and lowest elevations of 140 m.  

Thus, the 500 m parcel dimension is effectively 519.2 m:

and the effective land area is 597,080 m² (59.7 ha.), a difference of 22,080 m² – over 2 hectares of extra space for crops! 

 

This is a highly simplified example of the impact of slope on land area.  There are many other factors to take into account, such as the tipping point between beneficial slopes and unusable inclines.  But in a world where “land: they’re not making any more of it,” holds true, the most informed decisions are the best ones.  Where a precise figure is required, you’ll need to call in a professional land surveyor.  But when an area scaled from a map is fit for purpose, using a GIS and a little high school math can yield a more useful number than you’d get from a regular map. 

 

P.S. a related fun fact was shared at Wednesday night’s Geomatics on the Town event (part of the 2018 Geomatics Atlantic Conference): tree planters space their seedlings at a certain distance from each other.  For one tree planter, this was the equivalent of 3 steps on flat ground, but on sloped terrain, it was 12 steps in order to leave sufficient room between trees! 

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[i] Mainly for defining the relationship between the sides of a right triangle, but a little bit for first floating the idea that the Earth is a sphere...it comes into play in measuring distance.  There are two methods of measurement in a GIS, Cartesian and Spherical.  The Cartesian method calculates distance and areas based on data as projected onto a flat surface (like scaling from a paper map), while the Spherical method accounts for the curved surface of the Earth (like scaling on a globe).  The distances in this example were measured in MapInfo using the Spherical method.   

 Why Hire a Commercial Broker? How a Commercial Broker Adds Value in Real Estate Transactions

There are ample online and offline resources available at your fingertips to help you purchase or sell a commercial property on your own – so why hire a broker? If you have the time, negotiating skills, real estate market information, and understand your target market and how to reach them, you don’t!

However, unless you can say yes to all of the above, here is how a commercial Broker adds value to your transaction:

1. Your time is valuable.  Letting a Broker do the heavy lifting and deal with “tire kickers” allows you to focus on your business.

2. Brokers have the contacts and resources to market your listing or find you a suitable property, ensuring all opportunities are uncovered.

3. Brokers understand your target market and how to reach them.

4. Brokers do not have an emotional attachment to the property or transaction.

5. Brokers are often members of local real estate associations, which can provide you with access/exposure to the MLS system in addition to their own websites, social media platforms, and databases.

6. Brokers have the inside track on market data, sales transactions, planning considerations and players in the market who are looking to purchase or sell commercial properties. They can help you determine a reasonable price and can help maximise market exposure.

7. Brokers know how to properly measure a building and collect the property information required, such as any material latent defects that must be disclosed in a transaction, which can avoid future lawsuits.

8. Brokers prepare Purchase & Sale Agreements, Counter Offers, etc. on your behalf, saving you from hiring a lawyer to assist with these items.

So, once you’ve decided to hire a commercial broker, how do you choose which broker/brokerage to represent you? The short answer is to simply hire the broker with whom you feel most comfortable. There are many excellent commercial brokers locally, so meet with a few, ask them questions, and choose the broker you feel will best represent you, and who understands your wants and needs. Each commercial broker has their own strengths; it is up to you to determine which one is the best fit for your organisation. 

October 7^th through 13^th is Fire Prevention Week in Canada.  With firefighters in Nova Scotia responding to over 1,400 fire related incidents in 2016/2017, it is important to ensure that you have the resources in place to help tenants safely clear a property in the event of a fire.

The theme of this year’s Fire Prevention Week is “Look. Listen. Learn. Be aware. Fire can happen anywhere.”  The “learn” component of this year’s them refers to the need for everyone to learn two ways out of every room.  We can help.

Our LaserCAD® team is able to assist with “learning” by creating fire escape diagrams for your building.  We can add additional crucial details to your fire escape diagrams by including the locations of fire extinguishers, pull stations, hose cabinets, and emergency lighting, as well as clearly indicating escape routes.  These maps allow tenants to quickly identify an escape route and the location of fire safety equipment in the event of an emergency.  We can also customise the diagrams as needed, showing separate escape routes for each individual tenant space and noting any other relevant details, such as muster locations.

You may not be able to predict when a fire will occur, but you CAN plan for it.

For further information feel free to reach out to any one of our Lasercad® space measurement experts at (902)-429-1811 or toll free at 1-800-567-3033. 

It is a common misconception that a piece of real estate has a single value.  This is simply not true.  Determining which value is appropriate likely has the biggest impact on property value.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ Global Valuation Standards, specify six types of real estate value (Market, Rental, Equitable, Investment, Synergistic, and Liquidation). The Appraisal Institute (of America) has identified ten distinct, and valid, property valuation bases in common use in North America. Legislation, case law, and the purpose of the real estate assignment, result in many variations of these property valuation bases. Any conversation about valuing your property has to start therefore with an understanding of the purpose of the valuation assignment or you can end up with a conclusion which is worthless at best, or seriously misleading at worst.

Let’s discuss the two most common types of value.

Market Value (Highest and Best Use) is typically quoted and understood by many (including appraisers) to be the only type of value.  It is the highest price you would get for your property on a specific date, if it was offered for sale, properly marketed, and exposed for a sufficient period of time to alert and allow all potential purchasers to submit offers.  It assumes that both seller and buyer are knowledgeable of property values, that neither are under pressure to sell or buy, are typically motivated, and are each acting in their best interest. It assumes a cash purchase, or typical mortgage financing, in Canadian dollars. It also anticipates that the purchaser will be able to put the property to its “Highest and Best” use, which may for example, include redevelopment, if this will create a higher value than the existing use of the property.

But beware, Market Value is not the price you could expect to get if the purchaser (1) was an adjoining owner, (2) was undertaking a land assembly, (3) was a relative or business associate, (4) knew something that the vendor should have known but did not, (5) did not know something known to the vendor of which the purchaser should have been aware, (6) wanted a “vendor take back” mortgage, (7) intended to lease back the property to the vendor, (8) enjoyed a negotiating advantage because, for example, the vendor was in dire financial straits, … and so on.

I was recently contacted by an existing client looking to secure financing for their property located on the Halifax Peninsula.  Their property was improved with an older, single storey commercial building.  The underlying land was worth considerably more than the building and property under its current use.  After discussing the purpose of the assignment with the client and their bank, it became clear that the bank was interested in more than just the Market Value (Highest and Best Use) of the property in this instance.  The bank’s goal was to determine if the income generated by the property, under its current use, was sufficient to keep the lights on and pay the existing mortgage.  However, the bank also wanted to know what they could expect to sell the property for if they ended up taking possession of it and selling it on the open market. Effectively, the bank had two different goals which gave rise to two different values.

We completed a thorough analysis of the property and provided the owner, and their bank with two values (1) Market Value (Highest and Best Use), which in this case was for redevelopment of the property, and (2) Market Value (Value in Use) as it currently exists without regard to redevelopment potential.  Market Value (Value in Use) is similar to Market Value (Highest and Best Use) but is based on the assumption that your property could only be utilised for its existing purpose.   

Difference in Value

In this instance the difference in value was significant: $1.5 million (Market Value - Value in Use) versus $2.3 million (Market Value – Highest and Best Use).  Both values were included and supported in the report, allowing the bank to make an informed decision on lending.

 

Nigel Turner, Vice President of our Valuation Division, can be reached at nigelturner@turnerdrake.com

The Halifax Regional Municipality is in the throes of moving its long awaited Centre Plan from draft to reality.  With the first package of draft policy and regulation released in late February, it’s come a long way from the high-level guiding document that Turner Drake assisted with in 2016. However, there is still a ways to go. As one might imagine, when replacing multiple planning policy and development regulation documents for the most dynamic and complex urban environment in Atlantic Canada, the devil is truly in the details.

One of the biggest details being grappled with is the deployment of density bonusing, which is principally designed as an affordable housing tool. Depending on what you read, the current framework may actually backfire by delivering no affordable housing and even drive up market-rate housing prices by suppressing supply, or it may be perfectly fine and a good replacement for present ad hoc negotiations which are falling short of the Centre Plan’s achievable outcomes. Either way it provides an opportunity to highlight the perks and pitfalls of this increasingly common strategy.

What is Density Bonusing?

Density bonusing is a planning policy tool whereby new development projects can access higher regulatory limits on built area in return for provision of some public benefit. In other words, trade height for amenities. It is sound in concept. The value of urban land (but not the buildings on it) is primarily driven by where it is located, and what can be done on it. Thus, it is value created by our collective society through the infrastructure and services provided to it, the legal framework that governs it, and the surrounding public and private activities which would make one desire a particular location over another. When local governments “add density” by increasing regulatory limits over what is currently anticipated by the market (i.e. already reflected in its price), they literally create additional land value out of thin air. In requiring a developer to provide public benefits for this added density, local governments are recapturing the value they created in the first place.

There is an obvious tension here in terms of why this ‘bonus’ density was not permitted in the first place, but in the messy world of city-building, ideological purity will always lose to practicality. Density bonusing thus becomes something akin to racketeering: nice development application you’ve got there… what say you give us some art and affordable housing, and maybe that shadow ain’t so bad anymore.

How Does it Work?

While it’s a clear win-win in concept, it can be complex in practice. There are four important factors that determine whether or not density bonusing works on a given site:

·         the value of the property as it exists today

·         the value of the land if purchased for redevelopment

·         the value created by adding bonus density

·         the value captured through required public benefits

It is important to note that all but the last factor on this list are determined by the real estate market. The value captured is set by the municipality, and is typically based on an estimation of the value of the bonus density. In HRM, the tradeoff of density for benefits is structured under a predefined framework. Other municipalities negotiate these arrangements on a case-specific basis, but this approach it generally used in far larger centres due to the complexity and sophistication involved.

Roughly speaking, development projects are feasible in areas where the market price for land exceeds the value of properties as currently developed.  Adding a density bonusing program to the mix will increase the redevelopment value, but also add a new cost in the form of requisite public benefits. On net, this is usually a positive value; these programs are designed to recapture only a portion of the value they create.

It should be apparent that density bonusing is not, in principle, a drag on development. In fact, a properly designed program should improve the feasibility of existing projects and even increase the total pool of viable projects where the net positive addition of value (bonus density minus benefit cost) actually tips the balance of feasibility. For all intents and purposes, this is indistinguishable from a basic upzoning.

Where Can It Go Wrong?

There are plenty of opportunities for density bonusing programs to go awry, but most are the usual pitfalls of any public policy. There needs to be a logical and efficient administration process. The program needs to be supported by accurate data so that its function lives up to its intent. Appropriate buffers needs to be left to account for secondary costs and added overhead created by the program itself. There needs to be additional mechanisms in place to deal with the outputs (this is an important topic of conversation in the Centre Plan context, in which the majority of benefit is supposed to be in the form of affordable housing while the municipality has no formal jurisdiction or established programming).

However, the fundamental issue of whether a density bonusing program works is the value relationship between what is proposed, and what exists today. Most of the debate and discussion in HRM has been focussed on aspects of the former: what is the best value capture rate to use, what is the right threshold for triggering the bonus requirements, what are the correct value assumptions? Important questions, but their answers are all derived from the latter issue, not determined in a vacuum.

At the scale of a city, form follows finance. Whether density bonusing is implemented or ignored by the private sector will ultimately depend on whether the total value of entitled and bonus density, less the cost of delivering it (development costs plus public benefit), is a sweeter deal than exists today. If a profit incentive exists, a badly designed program will still deliver. If a perfectly designed program equates to a downzoning, don’t count on anything happening until prices rise, or losses are written off.

How to Get it Right?

As municipal planning increasingly makes use of economic and market-based tools (and it should) it also needs to expand its understanding of the principles and systems that underpin them. Weight does need to be placed on the market conditions of the present given their influence on the future (to say nothing of the municipality’s complicity in forming them).

The traditional approach would state planning policies cannot be captive to past practices and existing conditions, otherwise change would never be possible. While this is true, it is not justification for being willfully ignorant either. Understanding the basic value relationship between today's conditions and those proposed under new policy is the key to understanding whether density bonusing, or any planning policy for that matter, will deliver on its promise.

Neil Lovitt, our Senior Manager of Planning & Economic Intelligence can be reached at 429-1811 ext. 349 (HRM), 1 (800) 567-3033 (toll free), or nlovitt@turnerdrake.com.

The Building Owners and Managers Association (BOMA) publishes measurement standards for office, industrial, retail, and mixed use spaces.  These measurement standards provide guidelines for measuring the area occupied by each tenant within a building and, when appropriate, allocating common spaces.

BOMA states that if a building contains a single occupancy type comprising 51% or more of the total building area, the corresponding standard should be used.  In other words, the building owner does not have the right to simply choose the standard that best serves their interests. Given the ubiquity of commercial buildings that can be used for both office and retail uses, particularly in suburban and rural areas, it is critical to understand the differences between these standards.

Boundary Condition

Where does my measure line extend to? One of the most important differences between the Retail and Office Standards is how the measure line differs for exterior enclosures.  The Gross Leasable Area of a retail building is measured to the outside face of the exterior walls.  Under the Office Standard the measure line for the exterior enclosure is the dominant portion of the inside finished surface. The dominant portion is the finished surface that comprises over 50% of the vertical height, measured from floor to ceiling (not exceeding 8 ft.).  This difference can be significant.  The illustration below shows how a unit measured to the Retail Standard (right) captures more area than a unit measured to the Office Standard (left) based on this condition:

    

Of Heaven and Sea and Earth 

(Image via Global News)

Symptoms of an Election
In the run up to the now transpiring Nova Scotia provincial election, our governing party engaged in the time-honoured tradition of the spending announcement roadshow. A few million for a community centre here, a few million more for an overpass there, culminating finally in the double whammy of a new outpatient facility in suburban Halifax, and toll-free twinning of several sections of highway.

Unlike most spending announcements, the outpatient facility drew immediate criticism. While the highway twinning has started to attract some rightful critique, the patently foolish choice of locating a medical facility in the retail backlands of a dysfunctional industrial park was apparent to many; not the least of which being senior municipal staff who’d advised the Province of these issues months prior. Embarrassingly, the location is a miserable failure when measured against the Province’s own aging population action plan, Shift, which it had announced along with nearly $14 million in funding mere weeks before.

As an aside: of the opportunities for criticism of the outpatient location, and there are many, the purchase price of the land is not a fruitful one. Without the benefit of knowing the particular details of the deal, the $12.00/ft² paid by the Province for the raw land includes the cost to bring the site to a state of development-readiness. Land in this condition elsewhere in Bayers Lake has sold in the neighbourhood of $11.50/ft², so this is hardly the 12,000% markup insinuated by some reporters and rival politicians. (For future reference, comparing purchase price to assessed values for development land – or any real estate for that matter – can be extremely misleading. Media Types: if you’re looking for a real estate angle on a story, give me a call… I know some people.)

A Bad Prognosis if Left Untreated
So here’s the rub. Atlantic Canada, as we’ve described many times, is facing a serious demographic crunch that will constrain income tax revenue to the provinces, and property tax revenue to municipalities (in Nova Scotia, see Canso, Springhill, Hantsport, and Parrsboro for a preview). Given the scale of these trends, immigration is not likely to alleviate this difficulty. This means public investment utilises increasingly precious dollars; long gone is the time where we could rely on growth to overcome poor decisions.

Yet, public capital spending is and will remain one of the most significant factors in the trajectory of our communities. The provision and location of these facilities influences development trends for decades. A new medical facility is not just a site for convenient patient care. It is also a major employer, and consumer of both public and private services. It generates broader impacts; spinoffs that if harnessed properly can enhance the benefits of other facilities, strengthen neighbourhoods and local business, and mitigate future infrastructure costs. A newly twinned highway is not just a safety improvement for the travelling public, it is a half-billion dollars no longer available to be spent on other priorities. We’ve got to get serious, we’ve got to be scrappy, and we have to be careful to maximise the benefits our public spending generates. Opportunities of an equivalent scale from private-sector activity are few and far between.

By narrowly constraining their site selection study (I presume, as this information is also not publicly available), the government has perhaps saved money on the land for the outpatient facility, only to create far greater costs in the form of municipal servicing expenses, diminished economic spinoff, and foregone social benefits. This short-sightedness is not resigned only to our provincial overlords, municipalities large and small consistently miss opportunities to strengthen and improve neighbourhoods or commercial main streets. At best, we have a habit of placing community facilities in a location that only performs well on measures of land price and vehicular accessibility. At worst, it is directed by decades of parochial bickering and ends up in a location agreed to be equally terrible for everyone.


Nice wellness centre you have there, shame about the sidewalk.
(Image via Pictometry ©2015)

Prescription
As the highway twinning issue has shown, no “overwhelming public consensus” is going to emerge on any policy or funding choice other than those promising a free lunch. It is going to take political guts to lead the way: the decisions we need to make are pound-wise at the risk of appearing penny-foolish. Better analysis can help identify the optimal site selection and communicate the wisdom of that choice. A paltry million saved in cheap land will pale in comparison to full lifecycle costs of poorly located public infrastructure. The property taxes generated by that good natured economic development project might never recoup its initial cost. And increasingly, methods are available to help quantify and communicate the broad community and economy strengthening effects that government undertakings can create. A complete approach to site selection and capital project analysis in a time where each dollar counts is the difference between spending decisions that achieve lasting public value instead of fleeting public relations.


Remember, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and we have the skills required to evaluate your options in the context they deserve. Neil Lovitt, our Senior Manager of Planning & Economic Intelligence can be reached at 429-1811 ext. 349 (HRM), 1 (800) 567-3033 (toll free), or nlovitt@turnerdrake.com.